European Union states are negotiating a plan to double the amount of military aid committed to Ukraine this year. It will be discussed by foreign ministers next week.
The draft EU proposal asks member states to commit as much as €40 billion to shore up Ukraine’s position on the battlefield in its war with Russia.
European capitals have been examining how to increase the amount of aid they provide to Ukraine, given the question mark that now hangs over future US support.
US president Donald Trump temporarily cut off the flow of military aid and intelligence to Kyiv, until Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Kyiv would agree to a 30-day ceasefire.
EU leaders remain concerned that Mr Trump intends to pressure Ukraine into a peace deal on terms more favourable for Russia, which started the war with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago.
Diplomats from the EU’s 27 states have been discussing a plan to significantly increase military aid to Kyiv this year.
A draft of the proposal, seen by The Irish Times, suggested EU states go much farther than the €20 billion in support they collectively provided to Ukraine last year.
“Participating states are encouraged to deliver military support to Ukraine in 2025 with a provisional value of at least €20 billion, and potentially reaching €40 billion pending Ukrainian needs,” the proposal states.
However, it is understood there is some scepticism about whether EU states would be willing to fund the more ambitious levels of proposed contributions, which would represent a significant additional strain on several member states' national budgets.
The paper, dated March 13th, will be discussed when EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels on Monday. Aid could come in the form of donations of military weapons and ammunition, or financial support, it said.
The amount each EU state contributed would be calculated “in line with its economic weight”, the paper states.
Internal Irish estimates indicate Ireland’s share of a proposed €20 billion support package would be about €480 million, or close to €1 billion if the overall package is worth €40 billion.
Contributions from Ireland would be put towards non-lethal military aid, such as funds for fuel, body armour and medical kits.
The proposal is being driven by the EU’s foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas. It states there is a particular need to supply Ukraine with artillery ammunition, air defence systems, drones and missiles.
Some €15 billion has already been put on the table by a group of member states, with more expected to come on board.
The leaders of the EU’s 27 states are to further discuss the plan at a leaders’ summit in Brussels later next week. There is expected to be a push at the summit to agree to a short-term commitment, to provide Ukraine with two million artillery rounds at a cost of €5 billion.
Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban,a vocal supporter of Mr Trump, has said his government would oppose further EU military aid to Ukraine.
Ms Kallas’s proposal is therefore expected to be based on voluntary commitments from EU states that agree to participate. It may include contributions from non-EU states, such as the UK.
“It’s clear that Hungary will not be working in support of Europe’s security ... We have a clear expectation that all the other 26 are fully on board with this,” one EU diplomat said of the Ukraine support plan.
A coalition of “willing” states moving ahead outside of EU decision-making channels is seen as the best way to get around Hungary vetoing decisions that need to be agreed unanimously, another EU official said.
The paper from Ms Kallas asked EU states to set out the amount of support they could provide to Ukraine, and what kind of help they would be offering, by the end of April.
