A poll in the Netherlands has shown support for Geert Wilders’s far-right Freedom Party has fallen to its lowest rating since the right-wing coalition came to power in 2023.
The poll coincides with a rise in inflation, growing concern over Russia’s nuclear threat, and university staff protesting over education cuts
According to the poll by Maurice de Hond, the Freedom Party’s lead over its closest rivals – the merger of Labour and GreenLeft – has fallen to three seats, or approximately 2 per cent of the vote. This would give it 30 seats – down from the higher-than-expected 37 it won at the polls.
The four-party coalition – the Freedom Party, the centre-right VVD, the “farmer-citizen” BBB and the centrist New Social Contract – would win just 60 seats in total if an election were held today, down from the current 88 and well shy of the 76 needed for a majority.
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The current 30 seats is confirmation of a downward trend from the 32 the Freedom Party registered in polls two weeks ago and 38 at the start of the parliamentary year in September.
In tandem with that decline, there has been a projected three-seat gain – from 24 to 27 – for Labour-GreenLeft.
There has been a substantial gain for the VVD’s traditional coalition partners, the Christian Democrats, which has an estimated 18 seats after slumping in the November 2023 election to five seats.
Underpinning those figures, the De Hond survey shows that 22 per cent of voters are satisfied with the performance of the 15-month old government – whose flagship policy has been to introduce the toughest immigration regulations in the history of the state.
More surprisingly, and of more concern to Mr Wilders, the broad fall-off in support for the coalition is also evident in growing scepticism among the Freedom Party’s own supporters.
A slim majority of 55 per cent say they remain satisfied with the coalition. That is down from 67 per cent six weeks ago and from 83 per cent in September.
As a backdrop to the parties’ performance, the poll shows that two-thirds of voters – 67 per cent – believe the behaviour of the United States since Donald Trump returned to the White House has “increased the chance of war with Russia”.
This is agreed by 41 per cent of Freedom Party supporters, despite the fact that Mr Wilders is a vocal supporter of president Trump.
Despite the difficult relations between the US and Europe, the Netherlands still depends on the nuclear protection of the US, foreign minister Caspar Veldkamp acknowledged on Monday.
However, Mr Veldkamp revealed that he expected talks with France as a possible alternative “nuclear umbrella” to happen “one way or another, soon”.
