After 60 years of polite, annual transatlantic debate, the Trump administration has torn up the rule book of the Munich Security Conference.
Munich rule number one, posted on the walls of the Bayerischer Hof hotel: “Engage and interact with each other, don’t lecture or ignore one another”.
US vice-president JD Vance delighted in ignoring that rule on Friday with his claim that Europe is undermining democracy by silencing citizens’ immigration concerns, and the far-right parties they support. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, ignored by Vance in Munich, said: “How we proceed with our democracy we will decide for ourselves.”
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz, in his response, referenced the White House reporting bar on the Associated Press agency in a name dispute over the Gulf of Mexico: “We would never kick a news agency out of the press room of our chancellery.”
Not everyone in Germany rose to the Vance bait. The influential Bild tabloid said there was “no time for sulking” about the US, “our closest and most important ally”.
Yet Germany’s most important ally gave a distracted impression in Munich, with Vance meeting AfD leader Alice Weidel on the sidelines and departing early just as speculation grew of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia.
Throughout the Munich conference panels, the message from European participants was the same: no ceasefire deal could be done over Ukraine’s head or excluding Europe – while just such a deal appears to be on the cards.
Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorksi dialled down the indignation in Munich, but pointed out to remaining US attendees the cost of Trump’s “unorthodox” direct approach to Russia on Ukraine.
“If you allow Putin to vassalise Ukraine, that will send a message to China that you can recover what you regard as a renegade province,” he warned, “and that would have direct consequences for the US grand strategy, for the US system of alliances, and possibly for the future of Taiwan.”
With the ceasefire talks playing out elsewhere, many warned of the malevolent “spirit of Munich”, the failed 1938 appeasement deal struck in the Bavarian capital that forced Czechoslovakia to surrender its Sudeten region to Nazi Germany to avoid a war.
Czech president Petr Pavel suggested the new US administration’s approach was a necessary “cold shower”. But it was contradictory, he argued, for the US to demand Europe do more on security and defence while excluding it – and Ukraine – from talks. “Otherwise we would somehow echo the Munich spirit that the Czechs know about very well,” he said, “and agreement about a country without a country.”
Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen argued that, even three years after the invasion, many Europeans were still viewing their contributions to Ukraine more on what they felt comfortable giving than what Ukraine said it needed to win.
“We have to stick to strategy to win the war,” she said. “This is not easy, beautiful or nice ... but it is necessary.”
With an air of frustration after inconclusive talks with the Vance delegation, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy challenged European leaders with his prediction that Russia was coming for them next.
“What about your armies, are they ready?” he asked. “I really believe that the time has come, the armed forces of Europe must be created.”
That was unanimously shot down by EU leaders in attendance. Taoiseach Michéal Martin spoke for many when he said “a European army isn’t on the agenda in that sense”.
“What Ukraine requires is security guarantees in the event of Russia trying to invade again in a few years’ time if there was an imperfect peace,” he said.
With fears of imperfect peace talks looming, the spirit of Munich may well drift westwards on Monday to Paris.
