EuropeAnalysis

The fall and fall of Germany’s liberal Free Democrats

Ahead of the February 23rd federal election, the party is on 4 per cent in all polls – one point short of the 5 per cent hurdle to enter the Bundestag

The FDP rebellion has exposed growing pushback within the party against leader Christian Lindner’s previously unquestioned neoliberal line. Photograph: Maryam Majd/Getty Images
The FDP rebellion has exposed growing pushback within the party against leader Christian Lindner’s previously unquestioned neoliberal line. Photograph: Maryam Majd/Getty Images
Derek Scally's picture
Derek Scally in Berlin
Tue Feb 11 2025 - 13:33

Once upon a time, the liberal Free Democratic Party was indispensable, the glue holding together Germany’s political system.

From Adenauer to Kohl, the pro-business party favoured by German doctors, dentists and accountants had influence far beyond its traditional support in the low teens.

Today’s opinion polls suggest the doctors, dentists and accountants are now looking elsewhere. Ahead of the February 23rd federal election, the party is on 4 per cent in all polls – one point short of the 5 per cent hurdle to enter the Bundestag.

Crashing out of parliament would mark a dramatic fall from grace for the FDP. Its 11.5 per cent result on election night in 2021 catapulted the party back into power and secured the powerful finance ministry for its leader Christian Lindner.

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The untested three-way, so-called “traffic light” coalition with the Social Democratic Party and Greens was always a risk. Its promise of a “Green progressive transformation” for Germany was knocked off course for good by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As Germany scrambled in the months afterwards the FDP, a small-state neoliberal outfit, was pushed into uncharted and uncomfortable territory. Lindner was forced to sign off on massive emergency spending for alternative energy – and wave through a €100 billion off-sheet borrowing to retool the German military.

Berlin’s traffic light remained on the blink with a series of bad-tempered public rows over state spending and deficits. Last November, chancellor Olaf Scholz put an end to it by firing Lindner, prompting the FDP to walk out of office and triggering the snap election.

Haunting Lindner – throughout his turbulent three years in office, and the three months since – is his own bon mot from 2017, after snubbing a coalition offer from Angela Merkel: “Better not to rule than rule badly.”

On the campaign trail now, after three years in Germany’s most unpopular government in recent memory, Lindner and his party are struggling to present themselves as a political force for change. The party has been excluded from the main television debates while the centre-right Christian Democratic Union, its traditional ally, has described votes for the FDP as “wasted”.

“Four per cent is 4 per cent too much for the FDP,” said CDU leader Friedrich Merz, describing a Bundestag parliament without the liberals as “poorer but well able to survive”.

[ Bundestag MPs reject migration bill by Christian Democratic Union and backed by far-right Alternative for Germany ]

The withering Merz remarks follow a rebellion among the FDP parliamentarians two weeks ago. One quarter of the FDP parliamentary party refused to follow the whip and back a non-binding CDU migration motion. It, passed anyway, but only thanks to support of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

As well as tensions with the CDU, the FDP rebellion has exposed growing pushback within the party against Lindner’s previously unquestioned neoliberal line.

“There is a latent dissatisfaction with Lindner but a lack of unity within the party is poison in an already difficult election campaign,” said Prof Frank Decker, political scientist at the University of Bonn.

At the weekend, his party and leadership on the line, Lindner delivered an emotional party conference speech. First he attacked his former coalition partners as “the greatest impediment to growth” as Germany faces into its third year of recession.

His party’s recipe of tax cuts and less bureaucracy would fix Germany’s economic ills quickly which, in turn, would counter rising support for the far right more effectively than “candlelit protest marches”.

While FDP officials talk up their electoral chances, latest opinion polls on Wednesday threw their party a last-minute lifeline.

The FDP is one of three parties at or near 5 per cent in polls and their return to parliament could make another three-party coalition unavoidable in Berlin.

Spotting an opportunity, Lindner offered his services as political home help for the 69-year-old CDU leader: “Should Merz actually become chancellor, it cannot be ruled out that he would be a case for ‘assisted governance’.”