Just as the West used arcane Kremlinology to predict how the Soviet Union would behave, now Ukraine and Russia are resorting to what could be called Trumpology to divine the course of the United States under its notoriously erratic incoming president.
While the secrecy of the communist empire was what made it so mysterious to western eyes, it is Donald Trump’s unpredictability and apparent lack of political principles that leave the warring neighbours unsure whether to cheer or fear his return to the White House.
“I just don’t know if Trump will help Ukraine. Does anyone know? Do Americans know what he will do from one minute to the next?” said Iryna Khomyak, an office manager walking through a Kyiv park on a cold and sunny morning in the Ukrainian capital. –
“Hopefully his advisers and other leaders will make him understand that Russia is fighting against the entire West, not just against Ukraine,” she added. “And maybe it is good that he is not a normal, predictable politician. If the Russians think he is going to be their man, perhaps he will surprise them too.”
Trump’s boast that it would only take him one day to end Europe’s biggest war in 80 years alarmed Kyiv, because it suggested that to get a quick, ego-boosting “win” he might give Russian president Vladimir Putin what he wants – permanent control of five regions of Ukraine and agreement that the country of 40 million would never join Nato.
But now advisers to Trump say it could take months to halt a war that has killed and injured hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian troops, devastated swathes of eastern Ukraine, ravaged the economies of both states and stoked fears of a much wider conflict that could even go nuclear.
In the run-up to Monday’s inauguration, Trump has offered no insight into how he will tackle the conflict, leaving Kyiv, Moscow and other capitals searching for clues.
Kyiv disliked Trump’s recent criticism of his predecessor, Joe Biden, for allowing it to use US-supplied arms to strike Russia, but was somewhat heartened by his reply in the same interview when asked whether he would slash aid to Ukraine: “I want to reach an agreement, and the only way you’re going to reach an agreement is not to abandon.”
When Trump’s nominee for defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, appeared before a US Senate committee last week, his summary of 11 years of armed Russian aggression against Ukraine was self-serving and inaccurate, but Kyiv will have welcomed some of his remarks.
“We know who the aggressor is. We know who the good guy is. We want this to be as beneficial as possible for the Ukrainians. But this war needs to end,” Hegseth said.
In Marco Rubio’s Senate hearing, the secretary of state nominee said Kyiv must be ready to make concessions, but added: “Putin’s goal now is to have maximum leverage so that he can basically impose neutrality on Ukraine, retrofit and come back and do this again in four or five years. And that’s not an outcome I think any of us would favour.”
US media have outlined possible elements of a Trump peace plan, citing members of his team, but Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov quickly dismissed them: “We are not satisfied with the proposals being voiced by representatives of the president-elect to postpone Ukrainian Nato membership for 20 years and to send to Ukraine a peacekeeping contingent of British and European forces.”
With his troops weary and outnumbered, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy now advocates “peace through strength” and supports talks with Russia once ironclad western security guarantees are in place. He also rules out any concession of Ukrainian territory but accepts that occupied areas may be regained over time through diplomacy.
Polls show that many Ukrainians now favour a negotiated end to the war but still reject anything resembling capitulation – an outcome that would be political suicide for Zelenskiy in a country that has sacrificed so much for its freedom and sovereignty.
“Russia is not interested in any other outcome to end the war except for the total conquest of Ukraine and the subjugation of its people. However, they understand that achieving their goal by brute force is beyond their reach,” Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Zelenskiy, said this weekend.
“The Kremlin is now pinning all its hopes on the collapse of the pro-Ukrainian alliance of states, aiming to leave Ukraine alone in its fight. Endless discussions, false signals, disinformation – the war of attrition has moved from the battlefields and forests into conference halls.”
One thing Russia and Ukraine both see clearly in Trump – and hope to exploit – is vanity.
Putin praised him for behaving “courageously, like a real man” after an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania last year, while a deputy from Zelenskiy’s ruling party has already nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
“It is my belief that Trump has made considerable contributions to world peace,” Oleksandr Merezhko wrote in his letter to the Norwegian Nobel Committee, “and that he can make more in the future.”
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