Germany’s leading political parties have agreed to hold elections for a new federal parliament on February 23rd, seven months early, after the collapse of the three-way coalition headed by chancellor Olaf Scholz.
His Social Democratic Party enters the campaign trailing in third place on 15.5 per cent, less than half the support of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union. Current polls suggest Berlin’s next government may be a repeat of the Merkel-era grand coalitions of CDU and SPD, an option that has 33.5 per cent support.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz called Germany a “slumbering” force in Europe that “must become an active” force again. “It’s really time that the chancellor, after three years of a so-called progressive coalition, now paves the way for new elections,” said Mr Merz, who hopes to be Germany’s next chancellor. “I’ll guarantee a new leadership in Europe for Europe.”
After three years in power Mr Scholz is likely to table a confidence vote in the Bundestag on December 16th with the intention of losing it. But an early election requires the backing of president Frank Walter Steinmeier, part of postwar provisions to prevent the parliamentary instability of the Weimar era.
The winter campaign will be dominated by concerns over the recession-hit economy and irregular migration.
The SPD’s Green partners are polling at 11.5 per cent in polls, too weak for a previously floated idea of ruling with the CDU. Outgoing Green economic minister Robert Habeck insisted a CDU-Green alliance was “of course possible if people are listening to each other and are willing to agree on a reliable coalition agreement”.
Defending the government’s record on the economy, Mr Habeck said the so-called traffic light coalition was chiefly concerned in its early years with stabilising Germany’s energy security and finding alternatives to Russian energy products following the invasion of Ukraine. “We didn’t have the infrastructure,” he said at the Web Summit in Lisbon. “That was the work of the first year and it was done with astonishing speed.”
Uncertainty on energy and economic issues have pushed a surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), second-placed in polls on 19.5 per cent and rising.
An election wild card is the liberal, pro-business Free Democratic Party, which left the Berlin coalition after its leader and federal finance minister Christian Lindner was fired by Mr Scholz in a long-running row over fiscal rules. After years of decline polls show the FDP is poised on the 5 per cent mark required to re-enter the Bundestag.
Another wild card in the upcoming poll will be the untested BSW leftist alliance lead by Sahra Wagenknecht. Its 7-8 per cent standing in federal polls might be enough to complicate coalition talks after the February poll.
