The far right is on course to become the biggest force in French politics in a major political defeat for French president Emmanuel Macron, following the first of two rounds of voting in parliamentary elections.
Exit polls in France show National Rally, the anti-immigration, Eurosceptic party of Marine Le Pen, won 34 per cent of the vote in the first round of the snap election called by the president.
If the results are repeated in the second run-off round of voting on Sunday, July 7th, the likely outcomes would be a hung parliament, or a far-right government that would upend the French political system.
The New Popular Front (NFP), a broad coalition of leftwing parties that hastily agreed to run under one banner in the election, won 28 per cent of the vote, according to exit polls. The coalition, which includes the parties of hard left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the centre left Raphael Glucksmann, successfully positioned itself during the campaign as the main alternative to the National Rally.
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Mr Macron’s centrist group that is currently in government came in third on 20 per cent of votes, indicating it is likely to lose more than half of its seats.
The National Rally is expected to win the most seats after the second round of voting, but may fall short of the 289 seats needed for a majority.
Most of the races in the 577 single-seat constituencies will only be decided in a second round runoff between the biggest parties. This will leave voters with a choice between the National Rally and the NFP, and in many constituencies a three horse race that also includes Mr Macron’s centrist camp.
Under France’s legislative election rules, a candidate can be elected on the first round if they win 50 per cent of the vote, which happened in a small number of constituencies. In the majority of races, the two top candidates proceed to a second round run off, with whoever wins the most votes taking the seat. Other candidates need to pass a threshold of 12.5 per cent of registered voters to make it on to the ballot paper as a third choice in the second round.
In circumstances where the NFP would be the third choice, Mr Mélenchon said it would pull out of those constituencies to give Mr Macron’s camp a better chance of beating the National Rally candidate. “France is at stake, the republic is at stake,” he told supporters on Sunday night.
French prime minister Gabriel Attal, who belongs to Mr Macron’s party, said the far right was now “on the steps of power”. He said where the centrist group’s candidates came third in constituencies, they would also pull out of the second round in some races to avoid splitting the vote against the National Rally.
The National Rally’s Jordan Bardella, who would be the far right’s prime minister if it wins a majority, told party activists the next round of voting was a choice between his party and the “chaos” of the left.
Given Mr Macron remains president until 2027, a far-right government would see major clashes at the top of French politics on immigration, defence and support for Ukraine, and EU policy.
The National Rally won twice as many seats as any other party in the European elections in early June. In a response to that loss that took even close allies by surprise, Mr Macron controversially dissolved the National Assembly and called a snap parliamentary election.
Exit polls from the first round of voting yesterday show the political gamble, which was based on a hope that centre and leftwing voters would coalesce behind Mr Macron’s coalition to keep the far right from power, has largely been seen as backfiring.
