When Volodymyr Zelenskiy strode into Nato headquarters this month he found western leaders buzzing about war – but not his war. Just four days before the Ukrainian president’s visit to Brussels, Hamas militants had launched a surprise attack on Israel, which then responded with air strikes and began mobilising for a new conflict that has thrust the Middle East again into crisis.
Zelenskiy was cautious about not appearing as though he was competing for attention, while showing empathy for Israelis who had lost loved ones in the attacks and drawing parallels between his war and theirs. “Terrorists like Putin, or like Hamas, seek to hold free and democratic nations as hostages and they want power over those who seek freedom,” Zelenskiy said. “That means we must win. It requires patience, it requires steady and continuous support.”
He also urged “all leaders to visit Israel and show their support for the people”. If anyone knows the importance of showing up and putting up a united front it’s Zelenskiy, whose country remains locked in a fight for survival against Russia and is heavily dependent on western support.
Zelenskiy reportedly asked Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu whether he could visit Israel along with other leaders to show solidarity. The response from Jerusalem came quick and cold: “Now is not the time,” according to Hebrew-language media.
To many Ukrainians the denial felt like more than a snub: it was a red alert.
With a slow-going counteroffensive and Russia showing no sign of quitting, Ukraine faces the prospect of a long war, which will require unprecedented, long-term support from allies. The Israel-Hamas war comes on top of turmoil in the US Congress, widening fractures in EU support for Kyiv, and stumbling efforts to woo the so-called Global South that were already worrying Ukrainians about the world growing weary and distracted at their expense.
When EU foreign ministers convene for a regular meeting on Monday, Ukraine will not be the first item on the agenda for the first time since February 2022, displaced by the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Ukrainians are now wondering if the world has the attention span and courage to focus on two major wars.
US president Joe Biden on Thursday urged Congress to approve a new security package for both Ukraine and Israel. “We cannot and will not let terrorists like Hamas and tyrants like Putin win – I refuse to let that happen.” But Biden’s words have done little to alleviate the concerns of Ukrainians, whose fears are not unfounded: the world has forgotten Russia’s war against Ukraine before.
When outside observers marked 600 days of Russia’s war against Ukraine earlier this month, Ukrainians marked day number 3,525. For Kyiv the conflict began on February 20th 2014, when President Vladimir Putin sent troops in unmarked uniforms to Crimea and from there into Ukraine’s eastern regions known as the Donbas.
And Ukrainians remember how the world largely ignored them after Minsk 2, a controversial accord aimed at providing a roadmap to peace, was signed in 2015. The accord froze the frontline and turned the hot war to a simmer, with media dubbing it “Europe’s forgotten war”.
“After the second Minsk, the world’s attention was fading away. Especially in 2016, 2017,” said Yarema Dukh, a communications officer for former president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko.
It was between 2015 and 2022 that Russia cemented its grip on Crimea and the occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and began preparing for its full-scale invasion. Zelenskiy has spoken openly about the consequences of that being repeated.
“Russia needs a pause in the war in Ukraine to better prepare for a new and bigger invasion and to then attack Ukraine’s neighbours, which are members of Nato,” he told France 2. “I think that Russia will take advantage of this situation, this tragedy.”
Serhiy Nykyforov, Zelenskiy’s spokesperson, was unequivocal when asked how concerned the president’s office was about global focus shifting to the Middle East: “Our main goal is to draw attention to Ukraine.”
Ukraine’s chief of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, believes a short war between Israel and Hamas is unlikely to have long-term impact on western support for Kyiv. “But if the situation drags on,” he told Ukrainska Pravda, “it is quite clear that there will be certain problems with the fact that it will be necessary to supply weapons and ammunition not only to Ukraine.”
Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of foreign policy and international security at the Razumkov Center, a Kyiv-based think-tank, said the Israel-Hamas war “is already distracting the west from helping Ukraine”. Dwindling media attention, Melnyk said, “accordingly, affects priorities, and priorities of not only political attention, but also resources”.
– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023
