Ireland may be at risk from large-scale Russian cyberattacks on its energy grid, an Oireachtas committee will hear on Tuesday.
Experts from the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) will brief the Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defence on the nature of hybrid threats to critical infrastructure, including the communications and energy grid.
Members will hear that as Russia falters in its war against Ukraine, it will seek to damage the EU in other ways and that Ireland is a prime target due to the large amount of EU data stored here.
Ireland hosts about 30 per cent of all European data, along with cable infrastructure that is “critical to global communications”, according to Cian FitzGerald of the IIEA. He said sustained and large-scale power outages would disrupt Ireland’s image “as a safe and stable place to do business”, and also potentially cause disruption in the rest of the EU.
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According to IIEA director of research Barry Colfer, as its forces continue to get bogged down in Ukraine, “Russia may increasingly seek to utilise other means to achieve its political aims by targeting European states such as Ireland”.
The threats posed by Russia include hybrid or “grey zone” warfare which is defined as threatening activity that falls below the threshold of traditional military action. Examples include cyberattacks, disinformation and election interference.
Such activity “does not respect borders, sovereignty, or delineations between civilian and military targets”, according to Mr FitzGerald’s opening statement to committee members.
Hybrid warfare saps political and economic strength, undermines social cohesion and is often carried in an incremental, barely noticeable fashion, he says.
One example is the reported mapping of subsea cables by Russian vessels which Mr FitzGerald says is “designed to intimidate Europeans, to highlight their vulnerabilities and most importantly to undermine European support for Ukraine”.
Ireland is increasingly at risk due to its poor defences coupled with its large economy and importance in global technology.
The Irish energy grid may be a preferred target, either through a series of small-scale attacks or a single large operation, he believes.
Russia has already shown it is willing to take such action, Mr FitzGerald says. In December 2014, it launched a devastating series of cyberattacks against Ukraine’s power grid causing nearly a quarter of a million customers to lose power.
To counter this threat in Ireland, Mr FitzGerald recommended increased co-operation between the public and private sectors, the development of Irish intelligence capabilities to counter hybrid threats and a cybersecurity stress-testing system for energy infrastructure.
Ireland should also increase the resilience of its energy network “through greater redundancy and a focus on microgeneration programmes such as the €2,400 grant for households to install solar panels”.
