Supporters of the Nigerien junta are calling for the mass mobilisation of citizens against the threat of military action by a west African regional bloc that is calling for the restoration of the country’s deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum.
With a delayed meeting of military chiefs of staff of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) bloc scheduled to take place later this week, regional tensions over the July coup against Mr Bazoum appeared to be deepening, despite the junta’s efforts to suggest they were open to talks.
Following the expiry of an Ecowas ultimatum after the coup against Mr Bazoum, led by members of his presidential guard, the group activated a “standby force” to restore democracy in Niger but has yet to deploy it.
The latest moves in the crisis in the country – and a wider Sahel region that has been rocked by coups and jihadist insurgency – come amid tightening sanctions against Niger, even as representatives of the coup try to recruit regional backing.
On Tuesday, the junta-appointed Niger prime minister, Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, visited neighbouring Chad and met its president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, to seek support.
Calls for mass mobilisation are being pushed by one of several civic society groups in the Nigerien capital, Niamey, which have come out in support of the coup and have been used by the mutinous officers to rally support to their cause, including organising mass demonstrations.
The new group, the Volunteers for the Defence of Niger, is seeking tens of thousands of volunteers from across the country to register to support the country’s armed forces. “It’s an eventuality. We need to be ready whenever it happens,” Amsarou Bako, one of the group’s founders, told Associated Press.
According to the group, the recruitment drive will launch on Saturday in Niamey as well as in cities where invasion forces might enter, such as near the borders with Nigeria and Benin, two countries that have said they would participate in an intervention.
Anyone 18 and over could register and the list would be given to the junta to call upon people if needed, said Bako. The junta was not involved in the recruitment drive, but was aware of the initiative, he said.
It was unclear how serious the mobilisation call was or what it was intended to achieve beyond attempting to rally backing for the coup.
Regional tensions are deepening as the standoff between Niger and Ecowas shows no sign of defusing despite signals from both sides that they are open to resolving the crisis peacefully. Last week the junta said it was open to dialogue with Ecowas after rebuffing the bloc’s multiple efforts at talks, but shortly afterwards said it would charge Bazoum with “high treason” and recalled its ambassador from neighbouring Ivory Coast.
Ecowas defence chiefs are expected to meet in Accra, Ghana, this week, for the first time since the bloc announced the activation of the standby force. It is unclear when or if the force will invade, but such an outcomewould have devastating consequences, say conflict experts.
“A military intervention with no end in sight risks triggering a regional war, with catastrophic consequences for the vast Sahel that is already plagued by insecurity, displacement and poverty,” said Mucahid Durmaz, a senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, a global risk intelligence company.
Niger was seen as one of the last democratic countries in the Sahel region south of the Sahara, and a partner for western nations in the effort to beat back growing jihadist violence linked to al-Qaeda and Islamic State. France, its former colonial ruler, and the US have approximately 2,500 military personnel in the region who train Niger’s military and, in the case of France, conduct joint operations.
Coups in the region have been rampant and Niger’s is seen by the international community as one too many. But analysts say the longer the situation drags on, so the probability of an intervention fades as the junta cements its grip on power, probably forcing the international community to accept the status quo.
On Tuesday, the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said there was still space for diplomacy to return the country to constitutional rule and said the US supported Ecowas’s dialogue efforts, including its contingency plans.
The US ambassador designate to Niger, Kathleen Fitzgibbon, is expected to arrive in Niamey at the end of the week, according to a US official. The US has not had an ambassador in the country for nearly two years; some Sahel experts say this has left Washington with less access to key players and information.
However, in the latest evidence of the fraught security situation in Niger, the country’s defence ministry said that 17 of its soldiers had been killed in an ambush on Tuesday in a southwest region bordering Burkina Faso.
Attacks in Niger had been falling since 2021 but security remains a major problem, especially in the southwest near the border with neighbouring Mali. – Guardian