The world has “no credible path to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees”, and 2022 has been a year of “woefully inadequate progress” to achieving that critical target, the latest UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report has said.
Containing average global temperatures to within 1.5 degrees is a key target of the Paris Agreement to avoid irreversible and increasingly catastrophic impacts on the Earth.
Current climate pledges, however, leave the world on track for a temperature rise of 2.4 to 2.6 degrees by the end of this century, UNEP concludes, which means “rapid transformation of societies is the only option” for the international community.
The annual emissions gap report is the definitive assessment of global progress on cutting carbon emissions, and will feed into Cop27 climate negotiations in Egypt next month.
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As intensifying climate impacts across the globe hammer home the message that greenhouse gas emissions must fall rapidly, the report finds collective action “is still falling far short of the Paris goals”.
It calls for urgent sector- and system-wide transformations — in the electricity supply; industry, transport and buildings sectors; and the food and financial systems — that “would help to avoid climate disaster”.
“This report tells us in cold scientific terms what nature has been telling us, all year, through deadly floods, storms and raging fires: we have to stop filling our atmosphere with greenhouse gases and stop doing it fast,” said UNEP executive director Inger Andersen.
“We had our chance to make incremental changes, but that time is over. Only a root-and-branch transformation of our economies and societies can save us from accelerating climate disaster,” she warned.
Despite a decision by all countries at the 2021 climate summit in Glasgow (Cop26) to strengthen nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and some updates from nations, “progress has been woefully inadequate”.
NDCs submitted this year take only 0.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent — less than 1 per cent — off projected global emissions in 2030.
To meet Paris goals, the world needs to reduce greenhouse gases by unprecedented levels over the next eight years, it confirms.
Unconditional and conditional NDCs are estimated to reduce global emissions in 2030 by 5 and 10 per cent, respectively, compared with emissions based on policies currently in place.
To get on “a least-cost pathway” to holding global warming to 1.5 degrees, emissions must fall by 45 per cent over those envisaged under current policies by 2030. For the 2-degree target, a 30 per cent cut is needed.
“Such massive cuts mean that we need a large-scale, rapid and systemic transformation,” UNEP adds.
“It is a tall, and some would say impossible, order to reform the global economy and almost halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, but we must try,” Ms Andersen said. “Every fraction of a degree matters: to vulnerable communities, to species and ecosystems, and to every one of us.”
She added: “Even if we don’t meet our 2030 goals, we must strive to get as close as possible to 1.5 degrees. This means setting up the foundations of a net-zero future: one that will allow us to bring down temperature overshoots and deliver many other social and environmental benefits, like clean air, green jobs and universal energy access.”
The report finds transformation towards net-zero emissions in electricity supply, industry, transportation and buildings is under way but needs to move much faster.
Electricity supply is most advanced, as the costs of renewable electricity have reduced dramatically. “However, the pace of change must increase alongside measures to ensure a just transition and universal energy access,” the report finds.
For buildings, the best available technologies need to be rapidly applied. For industry and transport, zero emission technology needs to be further developed and deployed, it says.
“To advance the transformation, all sectors need to avoid lock in of new fossil fuel-intensive infrastructure; advance zero-carbon technology and apply it; and pursue behavioural changes,” the report says.
Food systems, accounting for about a third of global emissions, can reform to deliver rapid and lasting emissions cuts, it concludes, through “protection of natural ecosystems; demand-side dietary changes; improvements in food production at the farm level; and decarbonisation of food supply chains”.
“Governments can facilitate transformation by reforming subsidies and tax schemes. The private sector can reduce food loss and waste, use renewable energy and develop novel foods that cut down carbon emissions,” the UNEP suggests. “Individual citizens can change their lifestyles to consume food for environmental sustainability and carbon reduction, which will also bring many health benefits.”
The financial system must enable the transition at scale, it underlines.
A global transformation to a low-emissions economy is expected to require investments of at least $4 trillion to $6 trillion a year, the UNEP says. This is a relatively small (1.5 to 2 per cent) share of total financial assets managed, but significant (20-28 per cent) in terms of additional annual resources to be allocated.
“Most financial actors, despite stated intentions, have shown limited action on climate mitigation because of short-term interests, conflicting objectives and not recognising climate risks adequately,” the UNEP adds.
“Governments and key financial actors will need to steer credibly in one direction: a transformation of the financial system and its structures and processes, engaging governments, central banks, commercial banks, institutional investors and other financial actors.”
