Think for yourself: how to stop outsourcing your brain function
A global trend-watcher wants to save us from our over-reliance on experts
Stocktake: Markets should not bet on a Covid vaccine in 2020
Only 26 per cent of super-forecasters expect a vaccine before April 2021
Downing Street under fire over hiring of aide who linked intelligence to race
Boris Johnson urged to say if he agreed with views of ‘superforecaster’ Andrew Sabisky
Could poker make you a better investor?
Like poker players, investors should learn to think in terms of probabilities
Why do we bother with stock market forecasts?
Research shows people see value in humility after recognising limited understanding
Guesswork masquerades as expertise in stock market forecasts
Expert predictions tend to be no more accurate than chance, research indicates
Trump supporters see ban on migrants as a promise kept
Despite protests at home and abroad, a deep swathe of the US electorate backs the president
Financial predictions lose their edge after Brexit and Trump
However, market prices still ‘trounce’ polls and pundits in forecasting events
The enduring certainty of radical uncertainty
If you had described your iPhone in 1976, Friedman would not have understood you
House of tarot cards: who will win the election?
‘That’s the card of stress, of anxiety, of things being all over the place’: we ask two tarot card readers how the general election will go
Wall Street’s cautious bulls are likely to be wrong – again
There’s little reason to have faith in market strategists’ 2016 predictions
The tell-tale signs of unreliable stock market forecasters
A general rule of thumb: the most confident are the least accurate, according to research
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