RUGBY:THE LAST weekend's only shoot-out between the top two, Ulster could not have been pitted with a more daunting task than Stade Marcel Michelin, more a bear pit than a tyre pit. But at least they do so knowing that results in Pool Six last night ensured they are the third Irish side through to the last eight – as one of the best runners-up at least.
Clermont have won 36 games in a row at home, averaging over 30 points per match in the process. As with Munster’s six- and seven-point defeats four and three seasons ago, to put Leinster’s 20-13 loss there last season in perspective, Joe Schmidt’s team are one of only eight teams in this 36-match streak sequence to escape with even a losing bonus point.
But Clermont don’t mind when it’s put up to them too. Last Sunday week, Toulon turned up at the Marcel-Michelin determined to end their own 13-game losing streak there. All their big guns were on display, they led most of the way and were mightily up for it – this was full-on French club warfare.
Jonny Wilkinson kicked everything in sight, but so too did Morgan Parra and entering the last 10 minutes, Clermont stretched the Toulon defence once more off turnover ball, and Julien Malzieu popped up in the middle, as he does, took on and beat Stefon Armitage on the outside and Aurelien Rougerie was on hand to score the match-winning try.
In their centenary season, Clermont have also been much more vociferous in targeting the Heineken Cup and accordingly, in an area where rugby is the biggest reflection of the town’s identity, this game has been an 18,000 sell-out for weeks.
Ulster will walk into a wall of noise which is unlikely to abate, although the more the visitors’ manage this will be a barometer of their performance. Ulster have never won in 13 attempts on French soil, even though in latter years they have travelled bullishly, but if ever they looked equipped to do so it is now.
They have a hard core of World Cup-winning imports and in-form frontline Irish internationals, and their effectiveness at the breakdown and clinical finishing last week reached a new level.
The biggest difference from last week though, as Stephen Ferris highlighted in these pages yesterday, is Clermont’s high tempo and wide game will ask more questions of their defence.
That will be no problem for Ferris and a fair few others, but Ian Humphreys and Craig Gilroy could be exposed, and in the untimely absence of Darren Cave, and with Nevin Spence only just back from injury, Ian Whitten is obliged to start there.
Like Paddy Wallace inside him, he is more naturally an inside centre and given the defensive importance of the outside centre, this is a big ask of him to go mano-a-mano with Rougerie.
In an impressive statement about their strength in depth, compared to the starting line-up for the 12-try, 82-0 win in Aironi, Rougerie and Wesley Fofana are restored to the starting line-up, as is David Skrela.
The frontrow is rotated, Julien Pierre and Nathan Hines are back the secondrow, and Gerard Vosloo and Julien Bonnaire start in the backrow.
Nonetheless, with first-choice Davit Zirakashvili and Thomas Domingo out, Ulster have a chance to make an impression at scrum time, all the more so as John Afoa has proved highly effective in locking the scrum. Since Johann Muller’s arrival, Ulster’s work at lineouts and restarts has also been high class, and last week’s four lost throws can be seen as an aberration.
If the likes of Chris Henry and Pedrie Wannenburg can match the intensity of Ferris at the breakdown, they should be singularly competitive.
In a sense, though, forewarned is forearmed, and not alone do Clermont harbour the memory of their defeat in Ravenhill, they watched last weekend’s events in Ravenill. The selection of Skrela ahead of Brock James suggests Vern Cotter is mindful of Ferris and Wannenburg targeting the 10 channel, but they will assuredly introduce James and others long before the end.
And therein lies the rub. That Clermont strength in depth; James, Regan King et al on the bench. Although Ruan Pienaar has returned since the first meeting and thus Paul Marshall, as Adam D’Arcy did at Ravenhill, has shown his ability to make an impact, they’ll most likely have to rely on the vast bulk of their starting line-up. They are less equipped to cope with injuries.
By contrast, James is sure to appear and in the process immediately put more width, a longer kicking game and even more tempo on to Clermont’s game.
If Ulster were to win this, it would be the result of the cup so far, and arguably their best win ever.
CLERMONT AUVERGNE: L Byrne; S Sivivatu, A Rougerie (capt), W Fofana, J Malzieu; D Skrela, M Parra; L Faure, B Kayser, C Ric, J Pierre, N Hines, G Vosloo, J Bardy, J Bonnaire. Replacements: T Paulo, V Debaty, D Kotze, J Cudmore, A Lapandry, K Senio, B James, R King.
ULSTER RUGBY: S Terblanche; A Trimble, I Whitten, P Wallace, C Gilroy; I Humphreys, R Pienaar; T Court, R Best, J Afoa, J Muller [capt], D Tuohy, S Ferris, C Henry, P Wannenburg. Replacements: A Kyriacou, C Black, A Macklin, L Stevenson, W Faloon, P Marshall, N Spence, A D’Arcy.
Referee: Dave Pearson (England)
Betting (Paddy Powers): 1/7 Clermont, 25/1 Draw, 4/1 Ulster. Handicap betting (Ulster + 12pts) 10/11 Clermont, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 Ulster.
Forecast: Clermont to win.
