HICCUPS aplenty over the weekend have contrived to leave the league intriguingly balanced between the leading quartet of St Patrick's, Shelbourne, Bohemians and Sligo. Next weekend, these four take to the road for tricky FAI Cup quarter finals, but, increasingly, it seems likely that they will be carving everything up between themselves.
Not necessarily a bad thing either, if the Shelbourne versus Sligo League Cup final was any yardstick. The back matches now completed, the picture has cleared somewhat. Although the Cup is sure to disrupt, now is as good a time as any to take stock.
St Patrick's Athletic are the best organised team they score the highest ratio of goals from set pieces and concede the fewest. Ominously, they have drawn four games since injury to Eddie Gormley, whose fitness and form may hold the key. Martin Reilly's loss of form hasn't helped.
Still, four of their last seven games are at fortress Richmond. Trip wires lurk beneath the surface, not least Galway, who remain the only away team to win at Richmond in over 18 months.
Barring another unfavourable away draw in the semi finals, it could be that they will win the Cup, and go desperately close to the double, with draws in the big ones against Bohemians and Shelbourne. But I've a hunch they may have to win on April 26th. Forecast 63 points.
Shelbourne will be comforted to know that all three of their rivals have to play at Belfield. It was their reaction to that defeat as much as the manner of it which raised eyebrows. After all, it was a first defeat in 14, and presumably their defensive solidity will return.
However, Mick Neville was hoofing it too much on Sunday, they don't always commit enough men forward and they are over reliant on Stephen Geoghegan and Tony Sheridan. The signs are that teams are reading them. It may need a switch or two, with Dave Tilson or Mark Rutherford returning to the equation.
A trickier run in, with a couple of tough home games and four away, they have the capacity to keep St Patrick's in their sights until the final day. Forecast 63 points.
One point out of nine has seriously undermined Bohemians' challenge. Last season, Denise McArdle's decision to over rule a Tilson `goal' in Derry put paid to their chances. Last Sunday's dreadful penalty award may have done so again.
Once more, they don't seem to have hit on a settled recognisable side. They score goals from every where, and Maurice O'Driscoll has enjoyed his best season ever.
But they don't pass it enough from the back, aren't tactically flexible enough during games, and their poor performances in big matches were highlighted by defeats to Shelbourne and Sligo. They may well have to win three Dublin derbies in an otherwise promising run in. Forecast 61 points.
Sligo possess more attacking width than anyone, emphasised by a brilliant Gilzean Kenny Moran strike at Dalymount. They lack creativity and pace through the middle, though. Given their poor (but improved) disciplinary record, further suspensions await.
Like Bohemians, with seven defeats already, Sligo have little margin for error. Dundalk won the league last year despite eight defeats, but 59 points was an unusually low winning tally. Had the deflection off Gareth Byrne's face not gone the far side of the upright last Sunday week against St Patrick's, there they'd be a tempting wager.
Though they have four trips, Sligo meet all but Athlone of the bottom half. They could yet go close. Forecast 60 points.
The forecasts are probably erring on the side of generosity, especially as last weekend served up an overdue rash of surprises and bearing in mind Derry's final day slip up in Athlone last season. Curiously, Athlone have still to host the Dublin trio as well. Once again, something utterly unforeseen could decide it all.
