The vibes are bad and the ill-luck continues by the day, whereas the hosts are all smiles and all health. Yet you look at the Lions' Test team, the basket in which Graham Henry and co have thrown all their eggs, and you realise it still has to have a chance.

Come hell or high water, any team with such a gnarled and grizzled pack, and such a strong spine - basically any team which has Keith Wood, Martin Johnson and Jonny Wilkinson in it - has to have a chance.

True, of the six players in the original 37-man squad who have been ruled out of the tour, three would probably have made the team (Dan Luger, Will Greenwood and, at his best, Lawrence Dallaglio) and another, Phil Greening, would have made the test squad of 22.

To that list can be added the latest casualty, Neil Back, whose rib injury has unexpectedly ruled him out of Saturday's first test at the Gabba.

Iain Balshaw's loss of form has also been as negative as any injury, costing him a starting place, although he does make the bench.

Neil Jenkins' poor form, and the failure of the reserve locks to rise above their marginalisation, has also cost them a place on the bench, as the Lions have gambled on having no specialist goal kicker or specialist lock in reserve.

Aside from being without their first-choice open side, an unexceptional back three features a second-choice national full back, a converted centre on one wing and a league convert who has never started a Test on the other.

Nevertheless, not all the unforced changes are necessarily negative. Martin Corry's hunger and form since arriving as a late replacement could be an inspiration to others who have fallen by the wayside.

Likewise, Rob Henderson might be the best inside centre bet anyhow - he completes an all-Irish midfield with Brian O'Driscoll and brings the tally of Irishmen to three when Keith Wood is included - and Jason Robinson the best outside back.

Neil Back could be missed, though. The contrast in Phil Waugh's effectiveness against a Back-less Lions for Australia A and then for New South Wales when Back outperformed him at the breakdown was significant, all the more so bearing in mind Greg Smith is ranked above Waugh.

Back, it transpired, "got a bang on the ribs last Saturday" according to Lions manager Donal Lenihan, and while he might have been passed fit by Saturday, the open side wouldn't have been able to train in the interim.

He thus ran the risk of being put out of the tour if he took another knock in the Test. So, to have Back with a clean bill of health for next week, they decided to leave him out altogether.

Lions coach Graham Henry denied that it would alter the Lions' game plan in any way. "I don't think it changes our approach at all. It's a strong back row. We've got extra line-out strength which we didn't have prior, Richard Hill has got a lot of experience of playing at seven - he's played all his club football there."

As for full back, Henry said it was simply a form selection which may well have been made before Balshaw's latest fall from grace on Tuesday against the Cockatoos.

"We're playing a very high level of competition, 'Balsh' is going through the apprenticeship and I'm sure he'll play some outstanding rugby - hopefully before this tour is over, but certainly in the future.

"This is just a stage in his development. Matt Perry (who has been given the number 15 jersey) has played more games at full back for England than any other player in the history of the game.

"He's very experienced, he's been more comfortable on tour than 'Balsh' has been." However, the management cannot just wash their hands of Balshaw's gradually-worsening displays after a bright, two-try cameo as sub in the opening win over Western Australia. His failure has to be theirs as well to some extent.

They considered Balshaw as a wing, but Henry maintained that Robinson and Daffyd James had been selected there "on form". Whatever about James's negligible contribution going forward as a wing, Robinson has led the way with eight tries and increasingly confident, purposeful displays.

"He's been superb, he's a creator, he looks for work and he pops up in unusual places like first receiver or scrum-half, which is difficult for rugby defences to handle," extolled Henry.

"He is a work-horse who wants to be in the game all the time. He is not saddled by tradition and history and how the game was played, and he's getting better with every game he plays. "He's been a revelation on this tour." The notion that Scott Gibbs might usurp Rob Henderson was surely a mite fanciful to be entertained by even the most blinkered of diehard Gibbs fans.

Henry said of Henderson: "He has been creative, has scored tries, is good defensively and is a good communicator. He had a big game against Queensland so he got the nod." In the latest injury bulletin, both Wood and Rob Howley have trained fully these last few days.

Of the others, Greenwood is making steady progress but is due to have another scan in Brisbane, while Neil Jenkins seems to be causing renewed concern with further swelling on his knee.

"So there may be a possibility that we may have to get some cover if those two are in trouble," said Lenihan.

Gregor Townsend would look the obvious candidate.

Speaking of the Wallabies selection, Henry said: "It would have been the team I would have picked if I was him (Rod Macqueen). I don't think there are any surprises there. I know that Grey has been playing well and training well.

"The main discussion at the (Lions) selection meeting was goalkicking ability on the bench.

"We decided to go with Austin Healey because he can create and because he has come on at (number) 10 and been very positive.

"So we thought we score a couple more tries rather than kick a couple more goals.