Stakes are high for both sides

The stakes could hardly be higher when Leinster entertain Glasgow Caledonians in their final home game of the Heineken European…

The stakes could hardly be higher when Leinster entertain Glasgow Caledonians in their final home game of the Heineken European Cup tonight. Hence, despite the reduced marketing for this season's campaign, Leinster will be hoping for a revival of the Donnybrook experience given it will be the last of them this season.

After naming an unchanged team yesterday, Mike Ruddock expressed the hope that word of mouth, arising from their much improved attacking rugby when beating Stade Francais in their last outing, will generate one of those special Friday nights. Every little bit helps, all the more so as it's win-or-bust time for the home province.

In a remarkably tight group, where the traditional sway towards home wins has been excessive even by European Cup standards (eight games - eight home wins), given Leinster have the lowest try tally (four) and poorest points differential, they have to win tonight and again away to Leicester next week to have any chance of progressing as the group winners.

Theoretically, even in defeat Glasgow could still advance as group winners in the bizarre but now far from impossible event of the four protagonists finishing level on six points (as their try tally of 10 is bettered only by Stade on 14).

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That's as maybe. Caledonians will assuredly have targeted this game as their most winnable away fixture (as would Leinster were the roles reversed), knowing that another victory at home to Stade Francais next weekend would almost certainly see them topping the group.

"Whoever loses this weekend is out of contention for the quarterfinals," stated their captain and linchpin Andy Nicol. "It is another huge challenge for us, but we are quietly confident without feeling arrogant about our chances."

The sense of anticipation is equally acute within Leinster. "We've prepared really well this week and we can't really wait now," admitted Mike Ruddock as his squad went through their paces at Anglesea Road yesterday morning.

There's a palpable spring in Leinster's step now, arising as much from the manner of their win over Stade Francais as the actual victory itself. The advent of Emmet Farrell to the team on the end of Stu Forster's silver-salver service has finally enabled the talented young three-quarters and loose forwards play the game on or close to the gain line.

Girvan Dempsey's return, but only as far as the substitutes' bench, is a statement of faith in the XV who started, and finished against the crack Parisians, and particularly in the impressive Peter McKenna, now finally holding down his favoured position of full-back.

For all that, though, the higher risk strategy has to be fairly error-free as well, for the looser and faster this game gets, then the more dangerous Caledonians are likely to be - more so on the counter-attack than any European Cup team visiting these shores this season.

The general perception may have been that the Scottish Super Districts constitute the weakest of Leinster's three group rivals, but the style of their win in the first fixture and the results so far (Caledonians were highly competitive in both previous away fixtures at Stade and Leicester) have long since dissuaded the Leinster personnel of this notion.

Ruddock admits that Caledonians are a quality side, who have the additional cohesion this season from playing every week in the Welsh/Scottish League. "What we recognise in this game is that our defence has to be particularly good. Glasgow pass the ball well before contact and into space well, so we've got to give them no space."

Forecasting the outcome with any confidence is well nigh impossible. Based on results so far, home advantage would seem to be worth a sufficient swing - 13-15 points or so - to make Leinster marginal favourites, though this is countered by the more proven goalkicking of Glasgow's Tommy Hayes.

However, as young and mercurial as Leinster are, despite their greater sprinkling of experienced internationals Caledonians are equally as unpredictable.

Caledonians have undoubtedly reserved their best form for this competition and at home, and even they concede that they hit peak form in the previous win over Leinster when racing into a 29-3 lead by the 50th minute. One of their four tries that night, a pitch-length move that went through at least a dozen pairs of hands and was finished off by Hayes, would be a strong contender for try of the season.

Nonetheless, the Scots' away form, and performances generally in the Welsh/Scottish League have been singularly unimpressive. Since their win over Leinster, their reverse fixtures with Leicester (3017 at home, 21-34 away) have been sandwiched by 44-10 and 18-12 defeats away to Pontypridd and Ebbw Vale, admittedly two of the three leading sides in the Welsh/Scottish league. Furthermore, Richie Dixon rested several of his key players last weekend.

Given the stakes, though, it will be a surprise if either side capitulates - as Leinster did from 21-0 ahead against Llanelli a year ago - or doesn't give it a good shot in playing to their potential. In which case, whether or not the positive vibes now finally emanating about Leinster are justified or not, the styles of both outfits should make Leinster's last Donnybrook game of the season one of its most entertaining.

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley is Rugby Correspondent of The Irish Times