Giovanni Trapattoni insists Ireland can still finish second in World Cup qualifying Group C but he acknowledges his side must now take four points in the second round of games against their main rivals, Sweden and Austria.
Even that, though, might not be enough to guarantee them a place in the play-offs.
Placings at the end of the campaign will be decided on goal difference, with head to head records only counting when tied teams are level on the former and goals scored.
Eight of the nine second- placed teams will then progress to the play-offs and for the purposes of ranking them results against the sixth-placed sides wills be discarded then.
Group C is already in serious danger of producing runner-up number nine. Though technically, Germany need another 11 points from their remaining four games to top the group, few dispute they will progress, leaving Ireland, Sweden and Austria to battle it out for second place.
Trapattoni insisted yesterday there is nothing between the three sides and no reason, after Ireland's games against them over the past week, to be downcast about his side's ability to finish above both.
Significant edge
Sweden, however, appear to enjoy a significant edge, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic and co having a game more to play, Germany at home rather than away and, well, Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
From an Irish point of view, it looks to be an uphill task to finish above Erik Hamren’s side, with the most plausible scenario involving everyone losing to the Germans and winning their various games against the Faroe Islands and Kazakhstan, while the Swedes and Austrians drop four each in their two meetings, and Trapattoni’s men take four points, most likely on the strength of Friday and Tuesday’s games by beating Austria away and holding Sweden at home.
Any number of things, obviously, could go wrong, with four points for the Swedes from their games with Austria, for instance, effectively obliging Ireland to beat them at home.
Tuesday’s opponents, meanwhile, already enjoy what is, in practical terms, a one-point advantage over Ireland because of their greatly superior goal difference and so, almost certainly, only need to match Ireland’s results between now and the end of the campaign.
Still, assuming it all fell neatly into place, the sequence of results outlined would leave Ireland second, on 18 points; one ahead of the Swedes and five ahead of the Austrians.
Difficulty
The difficulty then is only once in the last three campaigns in which six team qualifying groups have been used would 18 points have notionally guaranteed a team a play-off. Overall, an average of almost 20 points is achieved by second -placed sides. In two of the last three campaigns – the World Cups of 2006 and 2010 – two such nations managed just 18 points. With a goal average of minus one at this stage, and a trip to Cologne still to come, it’s not a promising scenario from an Irish perspective but it appears to be as much as it is reasonable to hope for.
