The last day of the Premier League season confirms a power shift has finally taken place. The Midlands is now the centre of attention, something not many observers imagined they would live to see, with Tottenham and Arsenal well represented for a change as north London fills the next two automatic Champions League qualification slots. The two Manchester clubs, like bald men fighting over a comb, are now reduced to a tussle over who finishes in fourth place, the one with the extra qualifying round.
Considering the financial resources at their disposal this is undeniable underachievement. Manuel Pellegrini can spout all the statistics he likes, just as Louis van Gaal can blame injuries and bad luck, but the two clubs have never been wealthier yet this season is going to be the first in Premier League history without either of them in the top three.
City began to feature at the awards end of the table around five seasons ago, the proud Mancunian record is otherwise entirely down to United and the Sir Alex Ferguson years. Yet before United dominated the football landscape Liverpool did, and one has to go back 35 years, to the last time a Midlands team was crowned champions, to find a top three with no representation from the north-west. Aston Villa’s title-winning season in 1981 was something of a one-off too, even more than it must seem from the perspective of a side just relegated to the Championship. The previous occasion when north-west clubs were absent from the podium was 1961, when Sheffield Wednesday and Wolves finished second and third in Tottenham’s Double-winning season.
With that historical context in mind, finishing in fourth should not really count for anything at all. If second is nowhere, as Bill Shankly always used to maintain, fourth might as well be in a different division. The Champions League has altered how we view these things: fourth place is now considered more important than winning one of the cups, but the Champions League is supposed to be an old pals’ act, a self-perpetuating, self-aggrandising elite whereby the same big, rich clubs just get bigger and richer and hoover up everyone else’s best players so that smaller clubs can do little more than stand on the pavement outside and look in through the window.
That is why everyone enjoyed Leicester’s gatecrashing act so much. City very much want to be among the grandees of Europe; United used to be comfortable in that company until losing their way in the later stages of Ferguson’s reign, though by definition you cannot be a bona fide Champions League contender if you are still scrabbling around for qualification on the final day of the season. Even if City did reach the semi-final, the manner in which they ultimately slid out of view did nothing to suggest regular reachers of the last four will be hoping to avoid them next season.
That is what Pep Guardiola is about to take over, regardless of whether City stay in fourth place. There will be much tittering from the red half of Manchester if their new luxury coach arrives to supervise a Europa League campaign, though apart from the initial indignity there is no real reason why City could not survive a season out of the Champions League.
Most teams are in it for the money; City already have plenty of that. City have hired Guardiola to take them to the next level in Europe; fair enough, but does he have to do it in his first season? On the evidence of the domestic season now concluding Guardiola will have enough of a rebuilding job on his hands just turning City back into the strongest team in England. They have never managed to look really convincing in Europe and though Guardiola might be exactly the man to effect that transformation it is a big ask to expect him to do it straight away.
United do not really need the Champions League either. They have just announced record profits for the latest financial quarter, their money-making machine could survive a short holiday from the hot spots and hot shots of Europe. Van Gaal’s job is supposed to be hanging on a fourth-place finish, but he managed that last season and United found themselves out of the Champions League before Christmas.
Were he to take advantage of any City slip-up at Swansea and sneak into fourth with a United win against Bournemouth on Sunday afternoon he would probably be safe for another season, especially if he can bring home the FA Cup next Saturday, though it is a moot question whether that would be a cause for celebration in and around Old Trafford.
What most people think United should do at this point is make a clear statement about who will be in charge next season, and possibly beyond. A team that could have been dumped out of the Europa League by Midtjylland had they not promoted Marcus Rashford in the nick of time really has no business waiting around to see if Champions League qualification can help them arrive at a decision.
United appear to be adhering to the traditional view, as expressed by Pellegrini in his final press conference in Manchester. “For a big team, if you don’t qualify for the Champions League it is a disaster,” he said. But Pellegrini went on to say something else. “I don’t think it matters for one year – as happened to United in 2014 and Chelsea this season – but it is not the best thing for it to happen over a number of years.” Quite.
With the money United offer players, and the prospect of working under Guardiola at City, it is probably not even true that transfer targets would turn their noses up because of non-Champions League status. What is true is that the very best players, Renato Sanches being a case in point, will always want to join the best clubs. Doubtless to Guardiola's chagrin, Bayern Munich have reached only Champions League semi-finals in his three years in Germany, though they do boast three successive league titles. That is consistency of a sort and even if the German model is not to be preferred to the unpredictability of the Premier League it starts at home.
The plain, unvarnished truth is that the pride of Manchester, whichever side finishes highest, has some catching up to do on the domestic front before entertaining dreams of conquering Europe.
(Guardian service)
