By the time Sunday, March 16th dawns, Newcastle United’s short-, medium- and long-term future should be considerably clearer.
The day itself will see Eddie Howe either leading his team out at Wembley in the Carabao Cup final or rewatching videos of the previous day’s scheduled Premier League fixture at home to Crystal Palace.
It all hinges on a two-part Carabao Cup semi-final against Arsenal, with the first leg in north London on Tuesday night.
Howe has frequently reiterated his “burning desire” to end a club trophy drought stretching back to 1969 and the European Fairs Cup.
“Arsenal’s a massive game for us,” he said on Monday. “We’re under no illusions as to how big this is for our season.”
Given that two of his key players, Bruno Guimarães and Fabian Schär – crucially, Howe’s sole fit right-footed centre half – are suspended for the visit to the Emirates Stadium, Mikel Arteta’s title-chasing team unsurprisingly kick off as favourites.
Yet even if Newcastle’s hopes of reaching a second Carabao Cup final in three seasons are left in tatters, a second Champions League qualification within the same time frame could still be within touching distance.
After all, five straight Premier League victories have camouflaged, and perhaps even repaired, the behind-the-scenes fissures that disrupted the team’s early season progress. So much so that, with Sandro Tonali dictating midfield and Alexander Isak scoring freely, Newcastle have risen to fifth.
Should they succeed in walking through the currently wide open front door to Europe, Howe may yet be able to retain the widely coveted Isak, Tonali, Guimarães, Joelinton, Anthony Gordon and Sven Botman this summer.
But so much for the short term. By mid-March the majority Saudi Arabian-owned club are expected to have finally announced a long-awaited decision as to whether or not they plan on spending around £1 billion (€1.2 billion) on rebuilding St James’ Park with an increased 65,000 capacity.
The alternative is to invest three times that sum and construct a new, potentially matchday-revenue doubling, 75,000-capacity stadium elsewhere in the city.
Either option will almost certainly prompt months of planning wrangles, not to mention the likely need to share the Stadium of Light with Sunderland while a potential rebuild takes place.
That would be unpopular in some quarters but there seems no realistic alternative. Moreover, if Milan and Inter can share San Siro, the two northeast rivals can surely cohabit for a while.
Howe remains adamant that Newcastle’s much-redeveloped training ground should be regarded as a temporary home until a new stadium, promised by the Saudis when the kingdom’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) bought the club in October 2021, is purpose built. Right now nothing appears on an opaque horizon, although Brad Miller, Newcastle’s chief operating officer and the man overseeing the stadium decision, is also exploring assorted potential new training ground sites.
It is probably no coincidence that Miller’s previous expertise was in airport expansion. Maybe a man who has occupied senior roles at East Midlands, Stansted and Manchester will have an integral part to play if, as expected, PIF shortly purchase a 49 per cent stake in one of the area’s biggest employers, Newcastle airport.
Given that the other 51 per cent is owned by seven local councils, with profits used partly to fund vital local services, a PIF-led increase in flights, passengers and billions of pounds worth of cargo could yet fulfil the Saudi’s grandiose pledges to help level up the northeast by boosting the regional economy significantly.
Howe has previously expressed doubts as to whether he will remain in post for sufficient seasons to not only see the sort of long-term regeneration painted by the Saudi sales pitch but also the attendant litany of similarly promised league titles and European trophies.
With that latter vision impeded by Premier League profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) that restrict Newcastle’s spending power until their commercial revenue streams catch up with the owners’ ambition, a manager anxious to become the first English coach to lift the League Cup since Steve McClaren in 2004 knows time could be against him on Tyneside.
It perhaps explains why Howe remains unconcerned that his team’s mastery of the sort of streetwise gamesmanship – or to use the game’s vernacular, shithousery – that has previously reduced Arteta to apoplexy does little to polish Newcastle’s public image.
As recently as a fortnight ago, Aston Villa’s normally urbane manager, Unai Emery, was left incandescent by the antics of Howe’s assistant, Jason Tindall. “I don’t really care what happens outside Newcastle,” said Howe as he endeavoured to improve his club’s record of only one win in 19 visits to the Emirates, where Martin Dubravka could make a final appearance in goal for the visitors before joining Saudi Arabia’s Al-Shabab.
“The perception other teams have of us doesn’t really worry me. Outside opinion is almost irrelevant to us. We’re here to win and we give everything to win. Everything we do is to reach the pinnacle in elite competitions.” – Guardian
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Join The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
- Listen to our Inside Politics podcast for the best political chat and analysis
