How bad has it gotten at Newcastle? Well, they’re below Manchester United in the table now which, giving the doubt and uncertainty at Old Trafford, cannot be a good sign. They’ve lost eight of their last 12 games, going out of the Champions League and Carabao Cup. There were a smattering of boos after Tuesday’s 3-1 home defeat to Nottingham Forest, a team who had previously won one away game all season. It’s not quite a crisis yet but there is definitely potential crisis in the air.

The next three games feel key. In the league Newcastle face Liverpool away and Manchester City at home, two fixtures that would be daunting even if they were in form. And in between those matches, on the first Saturday of the year, they travel to Sunderland in the FA Cup. That competition would, anyway, present a dilemma for Newcastle; the league and securing Champions League qualification again, is, obviously, the priority but the Cup is the only opportunity they have left for a trophy this season, their only chance to end a silverware drought that stretches to 1969.

But far more important than that, it’s against Sunderland, their local rivals, whom they haven’t played since 2016 and haven’t beaten since 2011. It’s an awful tie for them. If they win, even if they win fairly comfortably, that’s simply what they should do; Sunderland are a Championship side and they haven’t been inflated by the Saudi millions. But if Newcastle lose, it will be a derby that will echo through the generations. It’s probably the biggest Tyne-Wear derby since the Division Two play-off semi-final of 1990 and yet for Newcastle it comes with very little potential upside.

None of that is Eddie Howe’s fault. But it could be a game that haunts him. Quite apart from the ramifications of potential defeat, he cannot afford to field a weakened team. Every decision will be minutely scrutinised. Ruud Gullit’s time as Newcastle manager came to an end after “the Derby in the Rain” in which he left out Alan Shearer and Duncan Ferguson (even though it was only after Ferguson came off the bench that Sunderland equalised and only after Shearer came on that they scored a winner). These are games in which everything is inflated and exaggerated and that have their own logical pull as a result.

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And Howe would presumably like nothing more than to play a string of reserves. His team looks exhausted. Although their injury crisis is easing, they have seven players out, plus Sandro Tonali suspended after breaching gambling regulations. Poor Kieran Trippier, the captain, who for a year or so had been consistently excellent, has slumped into a run of miserable form that has cost goals against Everton, Tottenham and Chelsea in the Carabao Cup. But he’s just the one who has made the most eye-catching errors; there’s been a drop-off all over the pitch.

For the first time since being appointed in November 2021, Howe is beginning to face questions. He remains relatively popular among Newcastle fans, largely because after the years of drift under Steve Bruce he has brought a sense of purpose. Although significant money has been spent since the Saudi takeover, he has got players who were already at the club performing to a level of which they had never seemed capable.

The football might not always have delighted neutrals but Newcastle fans had their years as entertainers in the mid-1990s and won nothing. Embracing the darker arts Howe seemingly learned while studying Diego Simeone at Atlético, adding an edge to the prettiness of the style he practised as Bournemouth manager, has been part of the embrace of the dark side, of being widely resented, that has come since the Saudi takeover. The sense of being besieged has helped make St James’ Park one of the more passionate/hostile (delete according to standpoint) stadiums in the country.

And that perhaps explains why home form remained good this season even as away form wavered. Newcastle were insipid in losing 1-0 away at City in their first away game of the season and haven’t recovered. Their only away win in the league this season came at Sheffield United (although it was by 8-0). Even in November, when they lost at Bournemouth there was a robust exchange between a dissatisfied away fan and Trippier. The pattern against Forest was similar: Newcastle, or at least this fatigued Newcastle, struggle to deal with pace in wide areas and, when the energy of their press dips, they lack creativity through the centre.

There is no fan pressure as yet on Howe, and so far the Saudi owners have been surprisingly sensible and conservative in their decision-making. But the history of wealthy owners suggests that if these next three games go badly, they will be asking whether Howe is really the manager to turn their investment into trophies.