“A nation becomes great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they will never sit.”
The internet attributes the saying to a “Greek Proverb”, though it has the ring of one of those cod-profound Insta-wisdoms, like “Good Times Create Weak Men, Weak Men Create Hard Times, Hard Times Create Strong Men, Strong Men Create Good Times.”
Actually the Irish football experience has been: “Hard Times Create Demoralised Men, Demoralised Men Learn To Live With Hard Times.” Whereupon the cycle grinds to a halt.
Stephen Kenny didn’t want to be like the old men in the supposed Greek proverb. He intended to be around to sit in the shade of the trees he was planting in his early days as manager.
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Unfortunately, his saplings are not sprouting fast enough to shield him from the harsh glare of the criticism that comes with four failed tournament groups in a row.
It’s not exactly true to say that Ireland are proving Alan Hansen was right that you win nothing with kids. The average age of the 16 players who featured against France was 26.6, almost identical to France’s average age of 26.7.
On Thursday night 11 of the 16 French players involved were aged between 24 and 30 — including all six of those who completed the full match
But in this case the averages conceal the true picture. Every individual player is different, but as a general rule footballers are at their best when they are aged between 24 to 30 — when they can combine the know-how that only comes through experience with the strength and energy of youth.
On Thursday night 11 of the 16 French players involved were aged between 24 and 30 — including all six of those who completed the full match. In contrast, only five of the Irish 16 fell into that peak age bracket — including just two of the seven who played 90-plus minutes.
Six Irish players were 23 or younger, while five were over the age of 30. France had three under-23s and two over-30s.
It was a similar story when Ireland played Greece in that desperate defeat in Athens. Ireland’s average age on the night was 25.1 — skewed lower than the France game by the appearances of Evan Ferguson (18), Troy Parrott (21) and Michael Obafemi (22) — but there was not a single 25-year-old or 26-year-old in the team. Only four of the 16 players involved were in the peak 24-30 age bracket. Nine were 23 or younger, while three were over 30.
The Greek players were on average a few years older — average age 28.9 — but 12 of their 15 were aged between 24 and 30. The youngest Greek player, 24-year-old forward Vangelis Pavlidis, was older than 10 of the 16 Irish players.
Of course, football is not a simple matter of 22 players running about for 90 minutes and at the end whoever has the most players in the 24-30 age bracket wins. Aurélien Tchouaméni overcame the handicap of being only 23 to score that brilliant goal on Thursday night, while most Ireland fans would nominate the 18-year-old Evan Ferguson as the best current Irish player.
We have some decent young players, and some decent older players, but not much in between
But it’s clear that having a majority of players in their peak years will give your team a better chance of winning matches. A more experienced Ireland side might have found some way to stem the Greek fury in that terrible first 20 minutes in Athens, instead of going to pieces as they did.
The population pyramid of Irish men’s football has an hourglass shape, like a country that lost a major war a couple of decades ago. We have some decent young players, and some decent older players, but not much in between.
We all know the causes are rooted in the long disastrous reign of John Delaney, the financial ruin of the national game over which he presided, and the succession of managers he appointed who showed no interest in planning for the future.
On that note — it was dispiriting this week to hear Martin O’Neill again justifying his failure to persuade Declan Rice to stick with Ireland even after he had played three senior games for the national team.
O’Neill’s reasoning boiled down to the argument that of course English-born players who have the choice will play for England over Ireland because they will make more money and have more chance of winning stuff. “If England come calling and give you a chance, then obviously you’re going to take it.” Obviously, to this former Ireland manager at least.
O’Neill said that he was never going to “coerce or deceive” Grealish or Rice into playing for Ireland, as though that outcome would have been tantamount to blighting their careers. Instead, he presented himself as a kind of guardian of their best interests: “I ask you this, if you were a brother or an older relative of either of those two boys, what would you be advising them to do?”
But O’Neill was not Rice’s older relative, he was the manager of Ireland. Who said anything about coercing or deceiving them? What about persuading them, convincing them, selling them on Ireland? “Losing in the World Cup quarter-finals with England would be predictable … this way it’s poetry.”
Imagine Arsenal had taken the O’Neill approach when they learned in the summer that Manchester City were also trying to sign Rice. Imagine Mikel Arteta had thought, “Well, to be honest, with City he’ll make more money, win more trophies, he’ll work with Pep, play with Haaland … frankly, it’s a no-brainer. I can’t stand in his way on this. When City come calling and give you a chance, then obviously you’re going to take it.”
The odds, again, are against us, the prospects of victory remote. But Ireland’s younger players will get there
Instead, Arteta sold Rice on a dream of what Arsenal might become, and the player — as people sometimes do — took the road less travelled. O’Neill has at least promised this will be the last we hear from him on this sore subject. Okay. Maybe it’s time for everyone else to move on too.
Tomorrow night Ireland have to beat the Netherlands to keep their faint hopes alive. Applying our patented predictive demographics, we can see that eight of the Dutch 16 that beat Greece 3-0 on Thursday were 24-30, with six over-30s and only two aged 23 or younger. They might not be a classic Dutch side, but they will be confident of handling Ireland. They boast players from Man City, Liverpool, Barcelona, Inter, Ajax — to which we answer Norwich, Burnley, Southampton.
The odds, again, are against us, the prospects of victory remote. But Ireland’s younger players will get there eventually. One day these little shrubs will be oaks and as we sit enjoying their shade we shouldn’t forget who planted them. Even if Kenny’s time in charge is nearing the end, he can be confident that history will judge him more kindly than many of those who came before him.
