Analysis of the permutations around qualification for the European Championships in Germany next year, just four matches into an eight-game campaign, is unusual but that’s where the Republic of Ireland find themselves.
The 2-1 defeat to Greece in Athens on June 16th is hastening the worst case scenario.
Measuring Stephen Kenny’s three years as Ireland manager via results alone remains a bone of contention with the 51-year-old. He continually highlights obstacles caused by the pandemic and a glaring lack of talent unearthed by the FAI in the previous decade.
Using luck as a primary metric also leads to universal agreement, not least following Evan Ferguson’s knee injury. There has been none.
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But the facts remain stark and unavoidable. Kenny targeted a result in Athens from a year out. He revamped physical preparations for the majority of his players after their EFL Championship club season ended six weeks before the fixture.
The squad and a large contingent of coaching staff failed to inspire a performance against Greece despite the week of warm-weather preparation in Antalya, Turkey. To make matters worse, Greek manager Gus Poyet openly spoke about having Kenny’s tactical number despite having only two training sessions with his players.
Not a single public voice supported Kenny’s stance that a draw was within their reach, which the Dubliner stubbornly reiterated last Thursday. He also criticised Matt Doherty’s two-game suspension despite an end game shoulder-charge and shemozzle in Athens before the Wolves wing back branded the referee as “arrogant” and “unapproachable”.
“When I looked at it, I didn’t see myself as a coach in the team,” said Kenny. “I’m responsible for that as manager. Having said that, although we didn’t play well, we could still have easily drawn the game. Do you know what I mean? We still could easily have drawn the game having not played well.”
It must be said too that Ireland could have easily lost 4-1 to Greece at the Opap Arena but for heroics from Gavin Bazunu and John Egan.
Kenny’s Ireland record, factoring in Covid and the introduction of 18 players, is only better than his 13 months at Dunfermline Athletic in 2007. That record which includes 10 wins, 10 draws and 14 defeats, must see a dramatic upturn in the next three fixtures, starting against world number two seeds France at Parc des Princes on Thursday before the Netherlands visit Dublin on Sunday and Greece play at the Aviva Stadium on October 13th, if a convoluted playoff next March is to be secured.
France are in control of Group B with four wins from four games, scoring nine goals and conceding none. The race for second will be sorted out this week as Greece, the Netherlands and Ireland cross paths.
Currently, Ireland will not be qualifying via Nations League results, which included an abysmal defeat to Armenia in 2022, as Israel, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iceland and Norway have superior records.
“We put in a good performance against France at home and I think we just need to replicate that and go one step further,” said Jason Knight, the Ireland and Bristol City midfielder. “It’s obviously going to be difficult but we’re full of confidence.
“We need to work extremely hard, they’ve got good players, they’re a good team. We know we need to be working hard but, like I said, we need to go one step further and win the game. We’ve obviously had chances at home but we just need to be converting them and keeping the back door shut as well.
“Getting that vital goal obviously is of the utmost importance. Like I say it’s going to be a tough game, there’s no bones about that, there’s full belief in the squad, the staff, that we can get a good result there.
“It would be wrong to pick out individuals,” Knight added, “they are a very good team of individuals and a very good team collectively and we just need to prepare right, individually do our own jobs, our own one v one battles around the pitch and I think we’ll do alright.”
The real test is how the Irish players recover from the Paris experience, and maintain their confidence levels regardless of the result, because the Dutch in Dublin on Sunday feels like the definitive moment of Kenny’s time in charge.
Defeat to Ronald Koeman’s team almost certainly spells the end of the campaign before Greece come calling next month. Anything less than six points at home to the Netherlands and Poyet’s Greece makes progress close to impossible.
Koeman has encountered mounting problems since replacing Louis van Gaal after the Qatar World Cup. A 4-0 trimming in Paris made this star-studded outfit look poorly coached, placing enormous pressure on Thursday’s result against Greece in Eindhoven (also a 7.45pm kick off).
Crucially, Koeman must inspire a turnaround in form without injured Atlético Madrid striker Memphis Depay, who boasts 44 goals from 88 caps, so it is not just the Irish who are left pining for their world class striker.
