CYCLING TOUR DE FRANCE:FOUR DAYS remain in the Tour de France, but with two of those almost certain to be the hunting ground of the bunch sprinters in the peloton, the final yellow jersey will be determined by what happens today and on Saturday.
Race leader Alberto Contador (Astana) and closest rival Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank), who were first and second last year, are separated by a mere eight seconds and will have their big showdown on the cruel, 18km slopes of the Col du Tourmalet today.
The finish of the 174km stage comes at the top of the climb, 2,115 dizzying metres above sea level, and will be the scene for all-out hostility from Schleck.
Contador is a far better time trialist than the Luxembourg rider, who knows that he has to take a chunk of time out of the leader to stand a chance of wearing yellow in Paris. To do that, he will need to attack a long way from the finish line, kicking clear near the bottom of the final climb and going flat-out to the summit.
His team will, consequently, be ramping up the pace on the preceding Col du Soulor to try to soften up his Spanish rival.
“I will have to be in yellow tomorrow,” he remarked at his team’s rest-day press conference. “There’s only one chance to take it and that’s tomorrow. If I get a minute, I would be happy. But if it’s more, that’s better.”
Schleck conceded one minute 44 seconds to Contador in last year’s 40.5km final time trial. This year there is a longer, flatter test of 52km, and so the potential loss could be higher.
In his favour, he appears stronger this year, while Contador is certainly not at the same level he was at in July 2009, when he won two stages and dropped the race’s other climbers on several occasions.
Either way, Schleck needs to gain a chunk of time.
But Contador is motivated and will do what he can to take his first stage victory of the race.
“Certainly, if I can settle the race in the Tourmalet, I will,” he promised. “Then I would have a more comfortable margin for the time trial.”
Samuel Sanchez (Euskaltel-Euskadi) and Denis Menchov (Rabobank), third and fourth overall, will be equally aggressive, knowing podium places are within reach.
Nicolas Roche put in a decent stint on the bike yesterday to avoid being too stiff today. He had hoped to be higher than his position of 18th overall, but lost time and placings on Monday when team-mate John Gadret refused to help him when he had a puncture.
“Thursday is going to be crucial,” he told The Irish Times. “It is going to be a very tough stage, but I am keeping my motivation high.
“I have nothing to lose. Regardless of the position I am in now, I have learned a lot from this Tour for the future. When I look back afterwards, I will be able say ‘this is where I still have to work on, this is where I am not doing too badly’. Overall, I think I have improved a lot since last year.”
That assessment is certainly true. Roche rolls out today in Pau 12 minutes and 34 seconds off Schleck, and 3:32 off 15th-placed Carlos Sastre, the winner of the 2008 Tour.
The Irishman’s task is physically difficult, but tactically straightforward. He must get out every drop of sweat, every kilojoule of energy on the final climb, fighting every inch of the way.
He must then do the same again in Saturday’s time trial, digging deep with what remains in the tank.
His goal of a top 15-finish overall has been made more difficult by his puncture, but if the others ahead of him falter, he has a fighting chance.
