Pro14: Ulster v Munster
Kick-off: 7.35pm, Friday. Venue: Ravenhill. On TV: Eir Sport.
The decade kicks off with a near sell-out at the Kingspan Stadium – more than 17,000 tickets having been sold – and in a festive series of interpros diluted somewhat by the necessary need to afford Ireland’s World Cup squad a respite, the return of marquee names ensures this feels like the real deal.
However, while it’s a derby, with crucial Guinness Pro14 points at stake, and there’s been plenty of edge between these two, crunch penultimate pool games in the Heineken Champions Cup next week mean emerging unscathed while also finding a degree of cohesion is as important as the result.
This is perhaps particularly true for Munster, who face a make-or-break trek to Paris against Racing 92 on Sunday week. Admittedly, Dan McFarland will also want his charges to be fully primed for tomorrow week’s daunting pool decider away to Clermont, where a win would go a long way to securing a home quarter-final, albeit they have the insurance cover of a final group game at home to Bath to secure qualification.
So it is that Johann van Graan has promoted Joey Carbery for his first Munster start of the season alongside the recalled Conor Murray. To a degree his hand was forced by the absence of JJ Hanrahan and Tyler Bleyendaal, and in the absence of another number 10 in a 6-2 bench presumably the in-form centre Rory Scannell will cover outhalf.
Remarkably, such has been the catalogue of injuries that has befallen Murray and Carbery in the last season and a half, this will be only their eighth start together and their first since the semi-final against Leinster last May in the RDS.
Their returns account for two of 10 changes in Munster personnel. Keith Earls and Andrew Conway are also reinstated, as are Peter O’Mahony and Niall Scannell, the latter in a new frontrow between Jeremy Loughman and 20-year-old South African academy prop Keynan Knox, who makes his second senior start. Darren O’Shea is also called into the secondrow, while Arno Botha returns after his three-week suspension.
Ulster, comparatively settled after opting for a much-changed line-up in the first of their three successive interpros and emerging with a bonus point from their defeat at the RDS, make just three changes from the side that preserved their unbeaten record this season at the Kingspan Stadium against Connacht.
Captain Iain Henderson and Jacob Stockdale return, while Nick Timoney is also recalled at number eight in place of Marcell Coetzee, who is sidelined after suffering concussion against Connacht.
As ever in these pre-Six Nations derbies, subplots abound, and not the least of them will be Murray’s match-up with John Cooney – the form scrumhalf in the country this season.
Since establishing himself as Ireland’s first-choice scrumhalf, and becoming the best in the world along the way, Murray’s hold on the jersey has never seemed more under threat.
In part this is because Murray hasn’t scaled the all-court, try-scoring heights of 2017 and 2018 since the serious neck issues which sidelined him for the first half of last season. In part, also, it’s due to Cooney’s stunning form as primary playmaker, match-winner and goalkicker this season with Ulster.
Andy Farrell’s 45-man squad for the recent “mid-season stocktake” underlined the clear signals that the slate has been wiped clean, and choosing Cooney ahead of Murray against Scotland in just four weeks’ time would be a powerful reaffirmation of that message.
Yet there have also been clear signs of late, notably against Saracens last time out, that Murray’s big-match temperament, passing and tackling make a compelling case for his retention.
One 80-minute head-to-head will not be decisive, but it could prove very influential.
Similarly, after all Carbery’s frustrations over the last year, during which time he has played just seven games for province and country (with just three starts) opportunity knocks for him too given Johnny Sexton’s knee injury.
However, Sexton is expected to be fit for that Scotland game, if not sooner, and in the short-term Carbery, van Graan and Munster will be content if he emerges in good health and having shown encouraging signs of adding to the temporarily stalled Stephen Larkham revolution.
Winning here for the first time since October 2016 and ending Ulster’s 19-match unbeaten home record in all competitions since October 2018 would be a relative bonus which may prove beyond them.
Built around the foundations of a solid set-piece and defence, Ulster’s stealthy ability to strike when their moments arrive has helped to generate a momentum and reconnection with their home supporters which they will be desperate to maintain.
Ulster: Will Addison; Robert Baloucoune, Luke Marshall, Stuart McCloskey, Jacob Stockdale; Billy Burns, John Cooney; Jack McGrath, Rob Herring, Marty Moore; Alan O'Connor, Iain Henderson (C); Matthew Rea, Sean Reidy, Nick Timoney.
Replacements: John Andrew, Kyle McCall, Tom O'Toole, David O'Connor, Greg Jones, David Shanahan, Bill Johnston, Craig Gilroy.
Munster: Shane Daly; Andrew Conway, Sammy Arnold, Rory Scannell, Keith Earls; Joey Carbery, Conor Murray; Jeremy Loughman, Niall Scannell, Keynan Knox; Fineen Wycherley, Darren O'Shea; Peter O'Mahony (C), Jack O'Donoghue, Arno Botha.
Replacements: Diarmuid Barron, Dave Kilcoyne, John Ryan, Gavin Coombes, Jack O'Sullivan, Neil Cronin, Dan Goggin, Chris Cloete.
Referee: Dan Jones (Wales).
Verdict: Ulster to win.
