Last Saturday afternoon I tore myself away from beautiful Killaloe to head north along the M7 onto the M50 and then the M1 before slipping off to Boyne RFC. All along the road I had Lyric FM blaring away and that the Champions Cup final between Racing 92 and Saracens was in play didn’t bother me in the slightest.
However, all changes 'utterly' this weekend with two cracking Pro12 semi-final ahead. Leinster's Kurt McQuilkin noted that Ulster are red-hot favourites tonight: on what basis? There is of course the recent 30-6 defeat and the key Leinster injuries but "red-hot" is a stretch.
There is a subtle difference between the sides, with decision making the most impressive aspect of what Les Kiss has been developing at Ulster.
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I recall Ulster's match against Oyonnax in January. An off-the-top lineout to the now heavily missed number eight Nick Williams in midfield created the line break. From here, many follow a formulaic system: a large forward taking ball into heavy traffic. But where was the space? Paddy Jackson has really improved Ulster's ability to exploit these opportunities. But one difference tonight is that Ulster players, beyond their outhalf, can do likewise.
Jared Payne’s try against Oyonnax on 61 minutes is a super example. His scrumhalf Paul Marshall tapped a quick penalty inside his half. His offload to Rob Herring created the first ruck. As Marshall cleared out, his secondrow Alan O’Connor was next to arrive but didn’t engage. Instead, he mimicked his scrumhalf with no loss of valuable time and fired open to wing forward Robbie Diack. As first receiver, Diack could have trucked it up (many would have). Instead, he skipped his outhalf Ian Humphreys and threw a flat ball into space, finding Roger Wilson wider in midfield.
How many Leinster forwards would confidently skip Johnny Sexton for a better placed player? Not many. Yes, Sexton is the best player but being so good can dominate others around him who, unless supremely confident in their own ability, may be suffocated by his presence.
Had Diack been playing for Leinster, would he have skipped his outhalf? Does this stifle Leinster at times?
Eventually Payne popped up to score. Yes, Oyonnax were rubbish but Diack’s play was no accident. So how do they do it? Or maybe a better question is; how do they do it against tonight’s better opposition? And that is their perennial problem in semi-finals. The answer will be found in the holy trinity – Ruan Pienaar, Jackson and especially Payne at 15.
Evolved
In Ravenhill, Leinster and Ulster had a great start, full of width. Remember as the game evolved and does again tonight that you’re looking at the two meanest defences in the league. So where they eke out RDS space is crucial.
From Leinster’s first lineout in Ravenhill they went off the top to Ben Te’o in the middle. Leinster’s lineout tail peddled backwards off their opening two lineouts; this afforded scrumhalf Luke McGrath a double option, fixing inside defenders before firing in their face to Te’o.
Although there was no real gain for Leinster, it was interesting how they developed this tactic using both backrow and midfield to create defensive decisions for Ulster.
Both sides moved their ball into midfield hunting for width and, crucially, from deep in their own half too.
Ulster ran it out from Leinster’s restart after 3-0. Leinster ran out from their first scrum inside their 22. As Te’o spilled that first carry, Ulster immediately countered. Rory Scholes popped up and Ulster attacked right, then rewound into midfield before rewinding again. Each time they appeared to test Leinster’s outside centre Garry Ringrose’s channel. Was this an early tactic by Ulster, I wondered?
Ulster will target Ringrose again tonight forcing him into split-second defensive decisions and an early bite before Ulster react. I lost count of how many defensive decisions he made in the opening 20 minutes alone in Ravenhill. Many were sound but on one he allowed Jackson to slip outside him as he bit on the decoy runners. By the 39th minute, Leinster had missed 12 tackles.
Rob Kearney’s yellow card had an immediate impact on Leinster’s width as they transitioned into the narrow focus of lineout maul and slow scrums; it also affected their defensive width.
Ringrose’s first carry in Ulster’s 22 off a backwards Leinster lineout maul was ‘nice’ but both 12 and 13 for Ulster were not overly bothered. However, it was Jackson staying alive and ably supported by Chris Henry that stole a cracking breakdown penalty. Henry won’t miss Josh van der Flier tonight, as his instincts are sharpening around the ‘vulnerable’ ball.
Dangerous
Jordi Murphy has stolen some high-profile ball for both Leinster and Ireland but Van der Flier’s lines are becoming more and more dangerous.
Lest we forget, Leinster are extremely dangerous too. From Seán Cronin's first lineout as temporary sub, Leinster went left to right with two pull backs to get wide, where the intention was to quickly rewind where Rhys Ruddock was way out on the left-hand side. The ball was eventuality spilled but it was more evidence of hunting for space. Hopefully the weather won't over impact two cracking games especially as the Champions Cup final remains dormant on my video. liamtoland@yahoo.com
