Warren Gatland has intimated that only a third or so of the British & Irish Lions starting XV for the first Test is nailed on, with the remainder still up for grabs as the tourists head into their final warm-up game against the Stormers on Saturday (kick-off 5pm).
After naming an entirely changed team, Gatland was asked how much of the Test side was fixed in his mind, or how much is still fluid, and said: “It’s probably fluid in terms of 60 or 70 per cent. We’ve got some thoughts on where we are, we want to see some players have another hit-out this weekend, and look at some of those combinations.
“We’re looking at some combinations within the team and also some players we wanted to have another run-out. Then there are a few players who have had some rugby and are freshening up for next week so they get a full week of training too.”
One imagines the likes of Maro Itoje, Conor Murray and Anthony Watson fall into the former category as players who've been earmarked for the first Test starting XV, and maybe Dan Biggar too, but at this remove competition for places looks more acute than on previous tours.
Further complicating matters in the secondrow, where there are now five specialists in contention, Alun Wyn Jones has been afforded a chance to put himself in contention to lead the Lions in the first Test after being named among the replacements against the Stormers.
“We feel that if he’s going to put himself in contention, he needs 20 minutes. So we had that conversation with him. He has travelled and arrived today but if he’s in contention for next week, he needs to have a run,” explained Gatland.
Robbie Henshaw, one of a quartet of Irish players starting along with Tadhg Furlong, Tadhg Beirne and Jack Conan, also returns, as does Stuart Hogg. Henshaw hasn't played since the pre-tour game against Japan due to a hamstring issue and Hogg since the tour opener against the Sigma Lions after being placed in isolation in Johannesburg.
“Hoggy has been a little bit unlucky in the last couple of Lions tours,” said Gatland. “So it’s good to have him back and he’ll be ready and raring to go.
“Robbie Henshaw had a fantastic Six Nations and we’re looking forward to him getting back on the park and hopefully putting his hand up.”
The 22-year-old Marcus Smith continues a scarcely credible five weeks in which he played a huge role in Harlequins' stunning Premiership semi-final and final wins, started his first two games for England and now makes his Lions debut. You couldn't make it up.
“There’s no doubt he’s got some real attacking prowess, he’s matured significantly and we’re really excited about him having an opportunity to start,” said Gatland. “I think we were initially looking at him coming off the bench but the message to him is just to go out there and enjoy the occasion and make a few people sit up and take notice.”
Indeed Smith's selection highlights some slight concerns around the Lions outhalves. Finn Russell is a significant doubt for the remainder of the tour due to a slightly torn Achilles, Biggar's ankle strain is being managed and Owen Farrell had a decidedly mixed bag as a late call-up to Wednesday's defeat despite having a slight abdominal strain. He too is rested, which means Hogg also covers outhalf.
That said, managing Biggar underlines how all that matters is the Test series.
“It is one of those ones where if we give him a bit more time then he is going to be fully ready to go for training on Monday,” said Gatland. “We want to make sure everyone gets a proper opportunity and anyone carrying niggles we freshen up so we can have a full week of preparation and training.”
Others carrying knocks form the defeat by South Africa A are Watson (tight hamstring and ankle sprain, "but he's okay"), Wyn Jones (a shoulder stinger) and Liam Williams, who is undergoing the return-to-play protocols after failing an HIA.
Following the South African A's win, Rassie Erasmus confirmed the Springboks had lined up another warm-up game against the Bulls on Saturday but repeated his suggestion that the Lions play them again.
“We are going to play the Bulls and if there are any outbreaks in the Bulls or the Stormers teams, any positive cases, then the best thing will be for us to play the Lions again on Saturday. That would be the safest.
But if everything goes according to plan, we will play the Bulls and they will play the Stormers.”
But once more Gatland gave the idea short shrift.
“As far as we’re concerned we’re here for the Stormers. It’s a great opportunity for those Stormers players to have a chance to play against the Lions. They get that one in a lifetime chance and I’d hate to see that taken away from them. He put out pretty much his top side against us last night, which is good because we had a good look at them.”
He then added pointedly: “And I don’t see it as our role to prepare them for the Test series.”
Gatland also laughed off the inference by Erasmus that the Lions were scared of playing South Africa again on Saturday.
“I think he was trying to wind us up saying we’re scared. Sometimes he’s capable of doing that. Last night he was the waterboy running on the pitch – if you’re the waterboy running onto the pitch you’ve got make sure you’re carrying water!
“I didn’t understand what his role was – you don’t run onto the pitch giving messages as the waterboy without carrying water. My advice to him is to make sure he’s carrying water next time he does that.”
The Lions head coach also felt that Faf de Klerk should have been red-carded rather than yellow-carded in the 39th minute on Wednesday night when leading with his head, and one shoulder at best, in a no-arms tackle.
“I can’t understand where the comments that there was no contact to the head. Someone was watching a different picture to me. I thought it looked reckless to me. No arms and he’s hit the arm first and then the shoulder, but there’s definitely head-on-head contact. We’ve got a meeting with the referees tomorrow just to get a bit of clarity on that. What we want is clarity so that we get complete consistency.”
Best of luck with that.
BRITISH & IRISH LIONS (v Stormers, Cape Town Stadium, Saturday, kick-off 5pm Irish time): Stuart Hogg, capt (Exeter Chiefs, Scotland); Josh Adams (Cardiff, Wales), Elliot Daly (Saracens, England), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster, Ireland), Duhan van der Merwe (Worcester Warriors, Scotland); Marcus Smith (Harlequins, England), Ali Price (Glasgow Warriors, Scotland); Rory Sutherland (Worcester Warriors, Scotland), Luke Cowan-Dickie (Exeter Chiefs, England), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster, Ireland); Adam Beard (Ospreys, Wales), Jonny Hill (Exeter Chiefs, England); Tadhg Beirne (Munster, Ireland), Hamish Watson (Edinburgh, Scotland), Jack Conan (Leinster, Ireland).
Replacements: Jamie George (Saracens, England), Mako Vunipola (Saracens, England), Zander Fagerson (Glasgow Warriors, Scotland), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys, Wales), Sam Simmonds (Exeter Chiefs, England), Gareth Davies (Scarlets, Wales), Chris Harris (Gloucester, Scotland), Louis Rees-Zammit (Gloucester, Wales).
