Irish team manager Mick Kearney has given the broadest hint yet that Johnny Sexton will be fit to start Ireland's World Cup quarter-final against Argentina in the Millennium Stadium on Sunday. Kearney also confirmed that the stricken Paul O'Connell will return to the squad either Friday evening or on Saturday after undergoing an operation on his badly damaged hamstring in London.
After the triple whammy of losing O'Connell, Peter O'Mahony and the suspended Sean O'Brien, on top of being denied the services of Jared Payne before last week's win over France, news that both Sexton and Keith Earls are expected to train on Friday will be a timely boost for the squad.
In light of that, Joe Schmidt is likely to retain as settled a side as humanly possible, and perhaps restrict any changes from the side that started last Sunday’s group-clinching win over France to those three enforced alterations when he announces his team at lunchtime on Friday.
If so, it seems likely that the Irish coach will promote immediate understudies who have been with the squad throughout pre-season and the World Cup campaign. In that scenario, Iain Henderson, Jordi Murphy and Chris Henry may be chosen to fill the three voids.
This would mean Ireland retaining the front-row from last week (Cian Healy, Rory Best and Mike Ross), the second-row which played the second half of last Sunday's game (Devin Toner and Henderson) as well as two of the three back-rowers (Henry and Jamie Heaslip) who saw out the French game.
If Sexton is named at outhalf, it would also mean starting with the same back-line which kicked off against France, namely Conor Murray and Sexton at half-back, Robbie Henshaw and Earls in midfield, and a back three of Dave and Rob Kearney along with Tommy Bowe.
If this selection does come to pass, conceivably there might only be two changes on the replacements’ bench, with Donnacha Ryan and Rhys Ruddock, who was called up last Monday, covering the back five of the pack. Otherwise, it would be the same front-row back-up, and the same three replacement backs.
While the loss of O’Connell, O’Mahony and O’Brien is a significant blow - between them they have played 184 tests for Ireland - the trio of potential replacements do have 58 caps between them. Aside from still being a strong starting XV, the bench (which played such a key role in Ireland striding to victory in the final quarter against the uber-fit French) still has plenty of impact in it as well.
Regarding Sexton, the Irish manager said: “Johnny did quite a bit of running yesterday (Wednesday) and is expected to train tomorrow.” Similarly, Kearney reported that Earls sat out training on Tuesday in “basically managing his load. Keith has participated in all our matches and all our training sessions so we thought it best he sat out training. He will train fully tomorrow.”
O’Connell had remained in camp with the squad before travelling to London for an operation “later today (Thursday)” said Kearney, who added: “We’re hopeful that Paul will re-join us back in Cardiff either tomorrow evening or Saturday.”
Kearney attended Wednesday’s disciplinary hearing with O’Brien in London which “took the guts of seven hours to hear all the evidence and see it through. It was a very fair process and thorough process. We did receive the written report of the hearing earlier today. We are reflecting on that and we’ll have a further update tomorrow.”
O’Brien received a one-week ban for striking Pascal Pape and the written report underlines why the Irish camp are infuriated by the contribution of the French lock. No shrinking violet himself, Pape repeatedly claimed that O’Brien’s “violent” act had left him in pain for the remainder of the game, despite playing on for 72 minutes, having over 40 contacts in the game and being involved in the tackles or clear-outs. Furthermore, Pape used Heaslip’s acceptance of his apology in his appeal against his 12-week ban for kneeing the Irish number eight in the back in last February’s Six Nations encounter between the sides at Twickenham.
Yet despite their anger with Pape, the Irish management appear unlikely to appeal O’Brien’s ban, not least as it would run the risk of it being increased.
The Argentinian coach, Daniel Hourcade, will also announce his side for the quarter-final at lunchtime on Friday, and it is expected to revert largely to the starting XV which kicked off their pool opener against the All Blacks.
The two main question marks appear to be whether he retains scrumhalf Tomas Cubelli from that line-up or Martin Landajo, who started the last two pool wins over Tonga and Namibia, while Ramiro Herrera is expected to start in the absence of the injured Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro at tight-head prop.
In the absence of the suspended Marcelo Bosch, Hourcade is likely to promote a more potent attacking player in either Matias Moroni (who played at outside centre against Tonga and on the wing against Namibia last Sunday) or Jeronimo de la Fuente, who started at inside centre against Tonga.
Ireland (possible) v Argentina: R Kearney; Bowe, Earls, Henshaw, D Kearney; Sexton, Murray; Healy, Best, Ross, Toner, Henderson, Murphy, Henry, Heaslip (capt). Replacements: McGrath, Strauss, White, Ryan, Ruddock, Reddan, Madigan, Fitzgerald.
Argentina (possible) v Ireland: Tuculet; Cordero, Moroni, Hernandez, Imhoff; Sanchez, Cubelli, Ayerza, Creevy I(capt), Herrera, Pagadisaval, Lavanini, Matera, Fernandez Lobbe, Senatore. Replacements: Montoya, Pas, Orlandi, Galarza, Isa, Landajo, de la Fuente, Amorosino.
