Andy Farrell is expected to stick closely to the starting XV and match-day 23 which was on duty for last week's 32-15 win over England when unveiling the Irish side for their 2022 Six Nations finale against Scotland on Saturday at the Aviva Stadium (kick-off 4.45pm) at lunchtime today.
There has to be at least one enforced change to the starting team given James Ryan has been sidelined, and the expectation is that Iain Henderson will replace him from the start, thus continuing the partnership with Tadhg Beirne which played the last 78 minutes at Twickenham.
With Ryan Baird also ruled out due to a particularly ill-timed ankle issue given his impressive first Six Nations start against Italy, despite call-ups for Ross Molony and the richly promising 20-year-old fellow Leinster lock Joe McCarthy in all probability Kieran Treadwell will be named on the bench.
The athletic Ulster lock made an eye-catching, try-scoring cameo against Italy when bridging a gap of more than four years since winning his third cap and can pack down on the tight-head side of the scrum.
While the said Irish scrum was penalised six times against England after being awarded the first penalty in a game which only had seven completed scrums, Farrell maintained afterwards: “I’m not concerned about it at all. We all know we’ve got a world-class scrum, we know the personnel we’ve got. It’s going to be great learning, isn’t it? For the likes of Dan (Sheehan) and the rest of the pack, they were searching for some answers, asking the questions and I’m not sure if they got the answers or not. We’ll look at ourselves first and liaise with the right channels and make sure we get to the bottom of it.”
It seems likely that the feedback from World Rugby will indicate that after sending off England’s Charlie Ewels in the second minute, referee Mathieu Raynal erred in at least a couple of those wheeled penalties against Ireland, and quite possibly more.
Hence, in maintaining that narrative, it would be no surprise if Farrell, along with scrum coach John Fogarty and forwards coach Paul O’Connell, make a statement of faith in last week’s starting frontrow of Cian Healy, Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong, with David Kilcoyne, Rob Herring and Finlay Bealham again the back-up.
A closer selection call, once again, is likely to have been in the backrow, where Jack Conan made a telling impact in the last quarter at Twickenham after replacing Peter O’Mahony, as Ireland reverted to the starting backrow for the first two games against Wales and France.
This did not negate the influence of Caelan Doris, who subsequently made a searing line break which ought to have led to a match-clinching try three minutes before Conan did so. Yet there’s no doubt Ireland have more involvements from Doris when he is at 8 and although the general perception was that O’Mahony had a quiet game he still led Ireland’s tackle count with 10.
It’s a close one but the balance tips towards Conan being recalled to that all-Leinster loose forward trio. Also, that bench perhaps ought to be rewarded in some respect.
Close decisions
On the presumably fairly safe premise that Jamison Gibson-Park and Johnny Sexton resume their half-back partnership, and likewise the back three of Andrew Conway, Hugo Keenan and James Lowe – albeit Mack Hansen must still be in the mix – the other close decision is in midfield.
Specifically, it again looks another 50-50 call between Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw to start at inside centre alongside Garry Ringrose. Henshaw was one of a quartet of Lions on a fairly experienced bench in Twickenham and like all the other replacements made a positive impact after coming on for Aki in the 66th minute.
Indeed, some of his numbers were pretty much identical to Aki’s in his lesser time on the pitch, such as 34m from five carries, with two tackles broken, and it would be no surprise to see Henshaw restored.
Aki didn’t have his most impactful game for Ireland this season, but his role has evolved to become more of a decoy and distributor and he was a again a tidy linkman in Ireland’s bright and breezy start to the game.
Furthermore, while Henshaw has been troubled by injuries this season which have restricted his game time, effectively whenever Aki has been fully fit he has been selected to start, against both Japan and New Zealand in November, and against Wales, France and England.
Ireland (possible) v Scotland: Keenan; Conway, Ringrose, Aki, Lowe; Sexton (capt), Gibson-Park; Healy, Sheehan, Furlong, Beirne, Henderson, Doris, van der Flier, Conan. Replacements: Herring, Kilcoyne, Bealham, Treadwell, O'Mahony, Murray, Carbery, Henshaw.
