I wanted England to beat Wales in Cardiff. The Welsh were Ireland's greatest threat and them losing first time out at home was important. With Wales travelling to Italy next week with an extra day's recovery over their hosts, Welsh points will flow. Did Ireland beat the Italians by enough? Saturday's result could kill off the relevance.
How do we judge Wales? England batter and bruise and rely on the five second ruck but Wales chop, and have superb breakdown jackals to attack the subsequent chop. Ireland's one out rugby will run straight into Dan Lydiate et al and requires so much more to avoid the Welsh axe.
The pace of tomorrow's game will be nothing like what our immature midfield have experienced in this Six Nations with wave after wave of red jerseys coming at them.
At the core of this tsunami is their breakdown. Why is it so important against Wales? There are 175 in every game versus 10 scrums – that’s a breakdown every 13 seconds based on ball in play. It sounds important, but especially so against Wales. Ferocity is one thing but Welsh technique is far more important.
England tend to use raw athleticism through from the ball carrier (Billy Vunipola et al) with a violent clear-out by their athletes. It's generally effective but low on brains.
Wales on the other hand with the exception of Samson Lee and Luke Charteris are all superb at the breakdown. And their flankers think their way around very similar to Australians. Consequently this is a far superior breakdown to what Ireland have faced thus far.
Look at the damage openside James Davies did to Leinster last Saturday night in Scarlets' ten-point win. Where do you think he learned that?
Irish wave
It all starts with the previous breakdown and what happened to the ball carrier – does he get chopped or not? If he dies, expect the Welsh flankers to anticipate/read this play as a pre-planned move. Watch them loiter as the tackling player chops, then watch their feet placement widen, then their hip height dip and especially watch as they thread their shoulders through the eye of green jerseys beyond the ball to jackal well beyond in the anticipation of an Irish wave to clear them out. Ironically this Irish clear out only pushes the Welsh jackal back onto the ball locking it impossible to shift!
Referee Waynes Barnes will be crucial in the ten or so scrums but his interpretation of the 175 breakdowns is much more so.
What can Ireland do? Avoid the chop and peel away the jackal! How? No lumbering one -out sluggish carries which can crop up when fatigue kicks in.
Worst case scenario, Ireland's one-out carrier must be followed by immediate offload pre contact. The ball carrier must fight on their feet – violent leg pump which is high risk on potential choke tackle which ironically Shaun Edwards, occurred on 24:53 when French number eight Damien Chouly carried into traffic and Wales prop Gethin Jenkins and Lydiate choked earning a turnover scrum!
But on our terms, fighting on our feet can allow an offload but crucially gains vital extra seconds, affording our support runners the chance to read the situation and close the gap to the vulnerable ball carrier.
Ireland's maul is the best in the Six Nations while Charteris is great in the air but not on the deck. But he presents a real threat in the initial maul set up. His ridiculously long arms and high hips make him poor at power mauling but they get him above the maul and he can reach across Irish players disrupting the tail gunner.
Wide creator
Tactically it appears Wales engage their midfield very quickly from off the top lineouts with
Jamie Roberts
the American football rushing back off scrums, lineouts and multiphase. The purpose of this is to make the gainline or beyond and quickly recycle the ball affording his centre partner
Jonathan Davies
a flat gainline as a wide creator.
Out wide they go the same way to get Davies into traffic sucking on double hit and in essence commit four backs (on Roberts & Davies) from two Welsh carriers with the third phase to expose the Irish flank. Closer to Ireland’s try line Wales will set a flying midfield screen off their scrums to get the ball wide and into North’s hand for a one-on-one test.
Ireland's bench tactics are most crucial. Wales' starting tighthead Lee will struggle to begin with and if Cian Healy was to arrive nice and early with him still on the pitch then there is an opportunity to scrum. Lee struggled at times to manage his right arm over France's loosehead and tended to raise his right shoulder, exposing his chest to hit and instability. Lee's a big unit but very inexperienced and well worth targeting off Welsh scrums as England loosehead Joe Marler showed at times.
Equally Webb at scrumhalf will make breaks from the base as he did against Australia and against France – leading to Dan Bigger's try after 59 minutes.
Tiring Irish forwards are vulnerable to Webb and our scrumhalf must remain inside the ball at neutral behind the ruck. Where a gap occurs in our defensive pillar our nine tends to step in and cover as time is at such a premium, if the gaps not filled immediately then it invites trouble. But if this occurs then there must be a fatty to fill the neutral position otherwise Webb will get through.
Defensively, off scrums Wales fly up but their centres often lead, leaving outhalf Biggar lag behind. This is especially important to Ireland's attack off the Welsh left side of the field scrum defence as their aggressive midfield places huge pressure on their scrumhalf to connect the dog legged Biggar. Davies can even outshoot Roberts and in doing so can narrow Wales' defence, exposing their outside winger. Leigh Halfpenny may be found covering backfield making their open side winger very vulnerable to two issues: cross field kick and the defensive question, do I stay or go?
Ireland need to get outside Davies to get the ball into that outside channel where there’s loads of space and tries.
liamtoland@yahoo.com
