There hasn't been a pivotal Six Nations round three quite like it. For the first time since 2013, five of the six teams have managed at least one win in the opening two rounds, and while that would have meant a four-way tie in second place on two points under the traditional scoring system, even with the advent of bonus points only one point separates Ireland in second and Scotland in fifth.
Top-placed England are set to equal the tournament record of 10 successive wins and inflict upon bottom-placed Italy a 10th championship defeat in a row at Twickenham on Sunday. Most likely they will do so with a bonus point, thus moving on to 13 points.
All the other four sides will take that as read when they clash in Saturday's double-header, in what amounts to two title eliminators, beginning with Scotland v Wales at Murrayfield and followed by Ireland against France at the Aviva Stadium.
For the losers, the title will be out of reach. The winners, meanwhile, will be clinging on to England’s shirt-tails.
At Murrayfield, two wounded teams are coming off agonising defeats, particularly so in the case of Wales, who divested themselves of every ounce of energy they could muster in chucking all bar the proverbial kitchen sink at England only to come within one exit strategy of an heroic win.
But Scotland are just as damaged, given they’ve lost their tactical talisman, captain and goalkicker Greig Laidlaw, as well as ball-carrying number eight Josh Strauss, for the remainder of the tournament.
Invariably, the Six Nations is as much a trial of a country’s strength in depth as their quality, and the Celts and Italians in particular need a fair dose of good fortune with regard to injuries in order to remain competitive. Less so, as ever, England, who despite the absence of their prime ball-carrier Billy Vunipola amongst others, are still winning games in large part through the impact of their bench.
One-point favourites
Unlike Twickenham on Sunday, for which England are 1/200 and 41-point favourites (and probably worth a bet on the handicap at that), in keeping with the nature of the tournament, the bookies make the others one-score games. The Scotland-Wales encounter looks to be virtually a 50-50 game, and accordingly the Welsh are just one-point favourites, even if that tells you the bookies see home advantage levelling matters against a slightly superior Welsh team.
This fixture is often a hugely entertaining and competitive affair – think back to the famous Welsh comeback in Cardiff in 2010 when, inspired by Shane Williams, they recovered from a 24-14 deficit close to the 80-minute mark to score 17 points in injury time.
Yet, remarkably, Wales have won the countries’ last nine meetings, all of them in the Six Nations, dating back to 2007. Wales have also inflicted a few hidings along the way, notably their 51-3 rout three seasons ago, even if in the last two seasons they have prevailed by 26-23 and 27-23.
In contrast to Scotland, not only do Wales have a cleaner bill of health, but they came into this tournament with key players appearing a little ring rusty, and so the likes of Toby Faletau (who may make his first start after two appearances off the bench, or maybe not such was Ross Moriarty's performance against England), Sam Warburton, Rhys Webb, Scott Williams and Jonathan Davies should all come on with another game under their belts.
Furthermore, they are more proven stayers over the course and distance of this tournament and World Cups. France were worthy winners over Scotland, who did almost buckle against Ireland before both being let off the hook a little and grasping their chance. In any case, one ventures Wales can justify marginal favouritism and perhaps therefore set up another title eliminator in the penultimate Friday night at home to Ireland.
Unbeaten run
Not that Ireland necessarily look generously priced at 3/10 and seven-point favourites against France, even with the possible return of Rory Best, Johnny Sexton, and, to the match-day squad anyway, Peter O'Mahony. For even in the five-game unbeaten run when Philippe Saint-André was in charge of the French, there were two draws and two one-score wins for Ireland. Indeed, in the last half-dozen Six Nations meetings, there has never been more than a score between them, and the French are a more confident, more settled and better prepared squad this time.
Last weekend, the six Pro12 games averaged 50 points per match, while those in the Top 14 averaged 55 and in the Premiership it was 62 points per game.
Thus far, unlike the increasingly and even obscenely high scoring we are seeing in the Pro12, Top 14 and Premiership, defences have been more in the ascendancy in the Six Nations. This probably has something to do with a higher standard of fitness as well as defending.
Most likely though, this will now start to change, not just because of the heightened hunt for bonus points, but more so due to improving conditions, amongst other factors, for this has always been the case.
Strictly applying the bonus-point system over the previous three Six Nations tournaments, there would have been a total of 12 attacking bonus points for scoring four tries or more – 11 by winning sides and one by a losing side. Interestingly, 10 of those 12 bonus points would have been accrued in March, and just two in February.
Similarly, there would have been 17 losing bonus points to teams for defeats by seven points or less, and of those 14 would have been accrued in February.
History tells us that things are not only going to become even more interesting, but that games may be about to loosen up a little too.
gthornley@irishtimes.com
