Toulon v Leinster
Stade Felix Mayol, Sunday, 4.30pm
Live Sky Sports 3
This it then, Leinster's season-defining game and the acid test of the Matt O'Connor era thus far. It's about as daunting as it could be, the defending champions in their own febrile lair, complete with localised rallying war cry and an expensively assembled team of global galacticos and World Cup winners, who have never lost at home in ten games in this competition.
They are nouveau riche, brash and seemingly constantly at war with the rest of France and the world, be it their coach Bernard Laporte or comic book millionaire benefactor Mourad Boudjellal, who collects stellar names from around the world the way the rest of us gather coffee loyalty stamps.
Toulon will be direct and uber physical, not least in defence, and team and crowd alike will draw strength from every three-pointer that Jonny Wilkinson nails. They will not go quietly into the night, and they will still be coming on strong in the 80th minute.
“They work together pretty well,” admits O’Connor. “They’re big game players, they’ve a lot of experience from around the world, they bring that to the table in terms of how they play the game.”
“They’ve a lot of Test experience in guys who actually enjoy the game. Their motives have been questioned at different stages but you can’t win this competition if their changing room isn’t solid . . . We’re under no illusions what we have to do and how good we have to be.”
But whereas most French teams will have lost mentally before they even take the pitch, Toulon may not have encountered a visiting team with the same savvy and ambition as Leinster will bring tomorrow, all the more so after O'Connor yesterday opted for the experience of Shane Jennings and Jimmy Gopperth. The anticipated return of Cian Healy and Rhys Ruddock also helps, albeit Leinster are still struggling for the kind of go-forward ball Seán O'Brien provides.
Smart picks
There's no doubt that Jordi Murphy and Ian Madigan are talented indigenous players whose day will come and who could have done with this experience. But Jennings and Gopperth are smart picks. Jennings will be cleverer at the breakdown, Gopperth more dependable in his decision-making and in ensuring Leinster play in the right areas, for the key to beating Toulon will assuredly be keeping Wilkinson out of range.
Wilkinson's seismic like impact on this ground possibly exceeds even his influence in Twickenham in his pomp, or even that of Brian O'Driscoll to Leinster, and in a captivating sub-plot, for one of these true legends, this will be their last Heineken Cup match.
Yet there are at least three areas where Leinster can have some joy. The Top 14 is not anywhere near the cutting edge of the global game at the breakdown, in terms of technique. French club rugby does not tend to indulge in multi-phase rugby, preferring instead a staccato game based more on mauling, one-off runners and kicking for position or points.
Admittedly, Toulon’s decision to play Steffon Armitage at number eight in recent weeks facilitates his exceptional ability to engineer steals or turnover penalties. It reduces the amount of time he is the first tackler, and instead is the next man in. He is also a powerful carrier.
Compete strongly
Yet Leinster have the capacity to take them through the phases in a way that few away teams would dare to try at the Felix Mayol, and they can also trouble the Toulon lineout, all the more so given the absence of Ali Williams and Bakkies Botha.
Leinster will also compete strongly in the air, where the form of the back three and Rob Kearney in particular is a source of encouragement.
O’Connor has put his own stamp on Leinster’s away form, particularly in Europe, with some grittiness on the road. All that said and done, there’s no doubt that Toulon play a ferocious, forward orientated power game of the kind which has troubled Leinster over the years, witness Northampton’s win in the Aviva.
The presence of Wayne Barnes is a caveat, and it will be close. Most likely, for Leinster to win, it will come to the final play. Yet they might just do it.
TOULON: D Armitage; D Mitchell, M Bastareaud, M Giteau, D Smith; J Wilkinson (capt), S Tillous-Borde; X Chiocci, C Burden, C Hayman, D Rossouw, J Suta, J Smith, J Fernandez Lobbe, S Armitage. Replacements: JC Orioli, F Fresia, M Castrogiovanni, V Bruni, B Habana, M Mermoz, M Claassens, K Mikautadze.
LEINSTER : R Kearney; Fergus McFadden, B O'Driscoll, G D'Arcy, D Kearney; J Gopperth, E Reddan; C Healy, R Strauss, M Ross, D Toner, M McCarthy, R Ruddock, S Jennings, J Heaslip (capt). Replacements: S Cronin, J McGrath, M Moore, L Cullen, J Murphy, I Boss, I Madigan, Z Kirchner.
Referee: W Barnes (England).
Previous meetings: None.
Leading points scorers: Toulon – Jonny Wilkinson 73. Leinster – Jimmy Gopperth 60.
Leading try scorers: Toulon –David Smith 3. Leinster – Luke Fitzgerald 3.
Betting : ½ Toulon, 20/1 Draw, 13/8 Leinster. Handicap odds (Leinster + 4pts) 10/11 Toulon, 18/1 Draw, 10/11 Leinster.
Forecast: Leinster to win.
