Toulouse v Connacht, Stade Ernest Wallon, Sunday 4.15 (3.15 Irish time) Live on Sky Sports 4
This is it then, the point of no return for Connacht’s Champions Cup qualification hopes and thus, assuredly, their biggest European game ever, whatever about it exceeding last season’s Pro12 final which saw them crowned champions of Ireland, Wales, Scotland and Italy over 24 matches.
The equation is relatively straightforward for Pat Lam’s team.
Currently top of the pool, a bonus point win would ensure they stay there and would even have a shot at earning a home quarter-final. A win of any hue would see them through at least as one of the best runners-up, on the likelihood that Wasps procure a bonus point against Zebre, and the second placed side in this group will definitely advance.
In the event of two sides finishing level in the same pool, the team with the better record in the two head-to-head meetings would have the higher ranking. As Toulouse took a bonus point from their defeat at the Sportsground, were they to beat Connacht and deny them a bonus point, the four-time winners would progress to the quarter-finals.
In a nutshell therefore, Connacht need to finish within seven points or better of Toulouse, and prevent the home side from scoring four tries. That would do it. If the home side score four tries, then Connacht would need two bonus points.
Given the permutations, clearly therefore defending well will be at a premium as much as attacking for Connacht.
A gung-ho approach like last week at home to Zebre, when kicking the ball out of hand only three times, could rebound, especially if they cough up three tries through coughing up possession in their own half like last week. Toulouse will be even more lethal off turnover ball.
Furthermore, Toulouse have shown in recent weeks, notably in their come-from-behind win away to Stade Francais and unlucky last-ditch defeat to Wasps, that they are a more potent side than they were in October, and have shifted Yoann Huget to fullback in a reshuffled back three with a gargantuan pack.
Different animal
"They're a different animal to when we beat them," says Jack Carty in reference to Connacht's 23-21 win at the Sportsground in round one.
“They’re playing a lot better attacking rugby. They’re getting their big ball carriers on the ball, so I think first and foremost it’s about our ‘D’ being better than it’s been all season.”
“We shipped three soft enough tries to Zebre last week but we had a good session on Wednesday. We changed a few things in our defensive set-up. It’s about getting up off the line and putting them under pressure.”
Helpfully, Carty is one of five players returning from injury, along with Peter Robb, Quinn Roux, Jake Heenan and Nepia Fox-Matamua, as Pat Lam employs the latter two opensides in the back-row either side of John Muldoon which, when all fit, has been very influential across the pitch on both sides of the ball.
Having won four of their five games, Connacht deserve this shot at glory.
But back in October, amid the euphoria of their epic home win over Toulouse, it was largely overlooked that Connacht had two attacking lineouts in the endgame from which they could have procured a fourth try and denied Toulouse a bonus point – in which case Connacht would by now have qualified for the last eight – but lost one and were penalised at the other.
Every point generally counts in this competition, which also has a habit of coming back to bite you. Thus, despite having won only two games, both against Zebre, Toulouse find themselves very much alive and with a clear enough target to achieve, namely to beat Connacht by more than seven points and they are through.
Thierry Dusautoir has likened it to a last 16 knock-out tie, which is in effect what it is. The Stade Ernest Wallon is not the most intimidating ground in France, but in seven away games this season, Connacht have managed just one win (in Zebre) and one losing bonus point, away to the Dragons.
Connacht’s capacity for pulling off surprises should actually make it less of a surprise, and we know they can rise to the occasion, but are more equipped to do so when Bundee Aki is there.
If their scrum holds up against the Toulouse juggernaut, and they keep moving them around, you never know, but it would be some achievement.
TOULOUSE: Yonn Huget; Arthur Bonneval, Yann David , Gael Fickou, Paul Perez; Jean-Marc Doussain, Sébastien Bézy; Cyril Baille, Christopher Tolofua, Census Johnston, Richie Gray, Yoann Maestri, Joe Tekori, Thierry Dusautoir (c), Francois Cros.
Replacements: Leonardo Ghiraldini, Vasil Kakovin, Gurthro Steenkamp, Talalelei Gray, Piula Faasalele, Gillian Galan, Toby Flood, Alexis Palisson.
CONNACHT RUGBY: Tiernan O'Halloran; Niyi Adeolokun, Peter Robb, Craig Ronaldson, Matt Healy; Jack Carty, Kieran Marmion; Denis Buckley, Tom McCartney, Finlay Bealham, Quinn Roux, James Cannon, Nepia Fox Matamua, Jake Heenan, John Muldoon (capt).
Replacements: David Heffernan, JP Cooney, John Andress, Sean O'Brien, Naulia Dawai, John Cooney, Tom Farrell, Danie Poolman.
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England).
Previous meetings: (2011-12) Connacht 10 Toulouse 36; Toulouse 24 Connacht 3. (2013-14) Toulouse 14 Connacht 16; Connacht 9 Toulouse 37. (2015-16) Connacht 29 Toulouse 21.
Results so far: Toulouse – L 21-23 v Connacht (a); D 20-20 v Wasps (h); W 36-6 v Zebre (a); W 54-15 v Zebre (h); L 14-17 v Wasps (a). Connacht – W 23-21 v Toulouse (h); W 52-7 v Zebre (a); L 17-32 v Wasps (a); W 20-18 v Wasps (h); W 66-21 v Zebre (h).
Leading try scorers: Toulouse – Arthur Bonneval, Yoann Huget 3 each. Connacht – Stacey Ili, Tiernan O'Halloran, Kieran Marmion 3 each.
Forecast: Connacht to win.
