The number two outhalf in Ireland is playing tomorrow at the Kingspan Stadium, Belfast. With regard to the question of Ireland's potential in the upcoming World Cup, clearly a fit Johnny Sexton is crucial. If he were to become unavailable then tomorrow's outhalves will carry the heavy weight of Ireland's ambition. It's that serious. Clearly Ian Madigan is in the mix but, with Sexton returning to Leinster, Madigan's match time at number ten will hardly improve.

With the best away team in the Guinness Pro12 travelling to the best home team it makes tomorrow's game a mouth-watering fixture. Add to that Ulster's recent performance against a fatigued Leinster and one could easily agree the home team are favourites.

However I was in the Sportsground four weeks ago when, in beating Connacht, Ulster struggled in many facets that Munster will have spotted. The conditions in Galway were horrible with poor weather and a repeat of that is likely in Belfast. How poor it is will no doubt dictate tactics; if it is wet it will favour Munster.

Connacht's scrum asked serious questions of Ulster, especially when loosehead Denis Buckley targeted Ulster's tighthead Wiehahn Herbst to gain a slight clockwise wheel drive, such as when Ulster lost one against the head on 49:30 minutes to give Connacht a valuable three-point penalty. That Nigel Owens, who officiated in Galway, will be the man refereeing again means Munster can learn quite a lot from his interpretations around the park but especially in arming their loosehead at scrum time.

The lineout in Galway was difficult in tough conditions but Connacht managed 100 per cent with Ulster struggling (at 81 per cent – the same as against Leinster!) in both the accurate arrival of the ball and Connacht’s ability to steal through anticipating the target.

More precision

No doubt Paul O’Connell will maximise Connacht’s example. There’s also the trajectory of the ball where the flight from Connacht’s Tom McCartney has more old school arch than Rory Best’s. This, of course, requires infinitely more precision in the combination of pod and exact arrival of the ball than the more direct flight. But the direct flight typically utilised by Best is more prone to interception.

So back to tomorrow's outhalves with victory one coup but performance, with Joe Schmidt in the stands, another. The weather brings wet weather control (tempo and field position) to the table which will be uppermost in each outhalf's performance followed by maximising their side's considerable assets. Iain Henderson's impact is obvious on TV where replays afford a deep forensic examination but reading of his game requires live viewing. Likewise, I really enjoyed watching Paddy Jackson in the Sportsground as he surveyed the information in front of him, oscillating between control and attack; but I noted his excellent selection of the appropriate depth.

His team stuttered throughout but he, recognising their challenge, kept control uppermost. Then, when it was appropriate, he started pulling the strings. Many of those strings stuttered, too, as in the crossing penalty awarded by Owens. But, crucially, Jackson had the options and tomorrow he’ll no doubt get Ulster into scoring positions firstly, before maximising those positions.

He has his flaws but he is increasingly dangerous in the opposition’s defensive zone. Ulster have many starter moves, especially off their right hand scrum and lineout, bringing their blindside winger into play in the ten channel and sucking in multiple defenders (including Ian Keatley) as their backline slip out before hitting the left hand channels.

Ulster have the best multiple attacking lines available to any provincial outhalf, especially with Jackson selecting his depth brilliantly. Leinster’s Ben T’eo scored a cracking try off brilliant running lines from Gordon D’Arcy et al to unlock Ulster’s midfield. For those who believe in D’Arcy’s demise they should watch Darren Cave’s reaction to the Leinster man’s decoy line, affording T’eo the clean line. Ulster are constantly running great lines and, should the flow of ball be crisp, it’ll test Munster brilliantly.

Game plan

Conversely, against Connacht and Treviso, Munster didn’t require the level of accuracy needed tomorrow, especially in the final third.

However, their game plan may be most suited to the conditions. Keatley has long been able to rifle the ball but it’s his double touch that proves most beneficial to his team.

Comfortable (more so than Jackson) in heavy traffic, he is adept in taking it on the gainline and, with the right ambition from team-mates, he has a wonderful habit of finding his man before hunting on to get back on the ball. More screenplays from Munster fatties out wide would afford Keatley a double carry and offload and provide defensive challenges for Ulster where the pace of the Munster recycle is key.

Keith Earls, after coming through so many horrible challenges, looks unbelievably sharp but yearns for quality ball. This is Keatley’s greatest challenge. Jackson and Ulster appear comfortable getting their back three involved off set piece and especially general play.

Can Munster team policies and Keatley manage the same?

Munster’s one out carries dominated the lesser teams and are much simpler to execute in difficult conditions but, on current form, Ulster have more strings to their bow.

Should Jackson continue to control the field before utilising these myriad options Ulster will flourish but, excitingly, Munster in tough conditions will ask many more questions than Ulster have faced, particularly from Leinster.

The key match-ups are at outhalf (obviously), blindside wing forward and out wide. Can Simon Zebo apply the Schmidt methodology for a full 80 minutes? With a possible four wingers going to the World Cup now is a good time for him or Andrew Trimble, Tommy Bowe, Craig Gilroy, Luke Fitzgerald, Keith Earls, Fergus McFadden, Dave Kearney et al.

PS. Lansdowne FC Abú.

liamtoland@yahoo.com