I never thought I would be quoting former US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld as a framework to analyse Ireland’s meeting with New Zealand in Chicago on Saturday. But here we go…
“We know there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know ... it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.”
This twisted piece of language is known as “The Rumsfeld Matrix”. Rumsfeld was trying to describe the possibility that in 2002 Saddam Hussein was holding weapons of mass destruction.
If we apply the Rumsfeld Matrix to this week’s match then we know that we know the New Zealanders have emerged from the most spectacular Rugby Championship ever staged with a 4-2 winning record.
While they defeated the world champion Springboks at Eden Park and walloped a very disappointing Australia in both Tests to win the Bledisloe Cup, they also suffered the worst defeat in their history at the hands of the South Africans in the second Test in Wellington.
As unbelievable as this sounds, the humiliation of the black jersey in that Test match was so absolute that in the last 20 minutes it appeared that several of the New Zealand players had actually given up.
When players quit in a match for the first time, giving up a second time becomes so much easier. There is no such thing as a weak New Zealand team – however this group appears to have an Achilles’ heel of mental weakness while under great physical pressure.
One of this week’s great known unknowns is whether Ireland will be capable of mustering enough physical pressure to force the Kiwis to break psychologically again.
Test matches are won by the most dominant pack and in Wellington the Springboks smashed the Kiwi forwards so completely that the only gear they could find was reverse. South Africa pushed the New Zealand pack backwards, which cancelled out the immense talent of the New Zealand backline.
We know that we know how in having the Barrett brothers and Cam Roigard, Will Jordan and Caleb Clarke the New Zealand backs are capable of scoring tries from any place on the Soldier Field pitch.
But, as South Africa proved, if the New Zealand forwards are not in command then their backs can be contained.
The greatest unknown unknown of this encounter is the Irish players.
Never in the history of Irish rugby has the national team been mired in such complexity as the situation they face in Chicago.
The problem is borne out of success. November has come far too soon because Ireland supplied so many players to the Lions last summer.
Three months later, these players have been rested and undergone a preseason training regime that has correctly kept them out of playing the early-season games. Many of these players are also on the wrong side of 30.
In the few games they have played, some have appeared lethargic and have performed well below the standards we know they are capable of.
This is totally understandable as they are being prepared to return to their peak for the Six Nations and their clubs’ play-offs in May.
However, there is the small problem of the November Internationals, with the Kiwis up first.
Never before has an Irish team been asked to take on one of the southern giants with so little preparation.
We do know this Irish team are winners. Grand Slams, Six Nations, Lions tours, United Rugby Championships and Champions Cups have all been won by many of these players. With all of that experience, they know what is required to win.
At the heart of this unknown unknown is understanding whether that is a positive or negative. These Irish players fully understand they have not undergone the required mental and physical preparation to take on the might of New Zealand.
Can the vast reservoir of experience these Irish players have built up across many seasons enable them almost miraculously to restore their mindset to the stratospheric levels required to overcome a fit and hungry bunch of flawed Kiwis?
Or is the reality that they are not fully ready to face New Zealand?
Well, damned if I know.
That’s the entire point of the unknown unknowns. No one’s got a clue until it happens. This is exactly why the Rumsfeld Matrix triggered the invasion of Iraq, and look how that turned out.
What we do know is when everything is stacked up – the knowns, the unknowns and the unknown unknowns – none of it looks good for Ireland.
New Zealand are match fit. Ireland are not. New Zealand have played eight Test matches since June, winning six. A full Irish Test team has not played since March.
However, Ireland do possess the greatest of all sporting unknown unknowns. The intangible truth that champions get up when they can’t. Do not doubt the champion qualities inside this Irish team.
If Ireland’s pack can find the mindset to dominate physically their New Zealand opponents and if Jack Crowley and Jamison Gibson-Park’s kicking game is disciplined enough to nullify the Kiwis’ counterattack then Ireland have more than a fighting chance.
Ireland will have to overcome a Kiwi team that sniffs blood in the water, knowing their opponents are undercooked. So the men in black will play at a frantic tempo that Ireland, in their present unprepared state, simply cannot live with.
When we knit together all the fraying ends of so many unknown unknowns inside the framework of the Rumsfeld Matrix, we can conclude that Ireland are massive underdogs against a bunch of flawed Kiwis who fancy their chances.
