Six Nations: Ireland v France, Saturday, Aviva Stadium, 2.15pm – Live on RTÉ and ITV
For the fourth year running, this is it, the same two countries going head-to-head in the Six Nations title decider in all but name, and thus the match of the championship and perhaps the season as well. That’s all then.
It may not be a Grand Slam shoot-out but most likely Ireland will need to complete a second Slam in three years to ensure a historic three-peat. That’s because France’s routs of Wales and Italy has made their points difference vastly superior, so if Les Bleus win this game Ireland would need to pick up two bonus points and deny France a bonus point to remain ahead of their rivals going into the last weekend.
Otherwise, any kind of French win here and they will lead the table entering next weekend’s final round, in which Ireland kick-off first in front of the travelling St Patrick’s weekend Green Army in Rome and France host Scotland in Super Saturday’s finale. England, at home to Italy on Sunday and away to Wales on the final day, are rated 14-1 outsiders of the three title contenders.
Ireland come into this game off the back of a third successive win in Cardiff, albeit they had to recover from an 18-10 deficit with 17 unanswered points. By contrast, France exorcised a few demons from their wasteful and somewhat self-inflicted defeat in Twickenham by sharpening their blades against an increasingly supine Italy.
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Each has been strengthened by the return of some key men, although Ireland are missing the suspended Garry Ringrose, while this game has come too soon for Tadhg Furlong and Rónan Kelleher. Fabien Galthié has reinstated Damien Penaud, one try shy of Serge Blanco’s French record of 38, and Romain Ntamack at outhalf to partner Antoine Dupont.
He has also beefed up his 7-1 bench with the heft of Emmanuel Meafou and Hugo Auradou,which looks to have been designed specifically with their hosts in mind, intent to beat up Ireland.
Even so, Ireland’s 6-2 bench looks well equipped to meet fire with fire, and furthermore France’s 7-1 split comes with plenty of risk. For one, injury in their backline automatically will ensure Maxime Lucu is introduced and Dupont has to move to outhalf.
That has to be a result for any opposing team, as no matter how adaptable he is at outhalf, Dupont is the best player in the world at scrumhalf. His duel with Jamison Gibson-Park, equally influential as Ireland’s pivot, will go a long way towards determining the outcome.
A host of other familiar rivalries abound, be it Dan Sheehan v Peato Mauvaka, Andrew Porter v Uini Atoni, Caelan Doris v Gregory Alldritt, and each of the back three, not least James Lowe v Penaud.
Galthié has already publicly aired his views on Ireland’s work on opposition rucks at the breakdown and it will be interesting to see how referee Angus Gardner and his officials oversee the scrums, although the Irish frontrow will bring more around the pitch.
France will certainly bring plenty of ball-carrying oomph to work off Dupont’s pull-stringing, although, for starters, the Joe McCarthy and Tadgh Beirne secondrow pairing ought not be overpowered by Thibaud Flament and Mickaël Guillard.
For sure, too, Les Bleus bring plenty of pace and finishing among their back three, although then again they are not all brilliant defenders, while outside centre Pierre-Louis Barassi was exposed by both Elliot Daly’s match-winning try in Twickenham and Tommaso Menoncello’s opener in Rome. Ireland are also equally as threatening in the air, both teams capable of bringing plenty of long-range and nuanced kicking in what will be a fascinating tactical battle.
A 2.15pm kick-off is not normally the most raucous slot, but if ever the Aviva will be all a fever then the sheer seismic magnitude of this encounter should ensure an atmosphere befitting the occasion.
Simon Easterby cites the opening game against England as encouragement.
“It was a cracking atmosphere. It gives the players an extra edge. it gives them another metre. I think it does, it creates something that allows, they feel like they want to go and they’re striving to do something special.
“I’m not saying that at times when the game swings a bit, when momentum swings, I think those are the moments where I feel in the England game, actually, that we felt like that atmosphere was still there and I’ve no doubt that will be the case on Saturday.
“I think the Irish public will know the magnitude of what’s at stake and those that are lucky enough to come to the stadium will I’m sure as well, and that will create an atmosphere, but we’ve also got to make sure that they’ve got something to get their teeth into as well.”
The weather forecast is for a relatively mild day but even if it doesn’t quite scale the epic heights of the corresponding clash two years ago, and even if it is a taut and tight affair, in modern times these two simply don’t do dull.
That French performance in Twickenham never looked like a good outcome for Ireland given France were never going to be that wasteful again. Italy may have felt the brunt of the riposte but France looked primed for a big performance.
So, to beat them, Ireland will need to produce something close to their collective best, but as the game has neared so has the feeling hardened that they will. As well as winning two of the last three title deciders, in those three clashes Ireland have outscored France by 12 tries to five.
As with the Leinster collisions against La Rochelle and Toulouse in recent times, Ireland’s more precise and nuanced game has enabled them to go toe to toe with the French and compete strongly.
What’s more, home advantage might come into play in a close game. French teams have had their troubles on their travels, while Ireland have won 23 of their last 24 games at the Aviva.
IRELAND: Hugo Keenan; Jamie Osborne, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Finlay Bealham; Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Beirne; Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).
Replacements: Rob Herring, Cian Healy, Thomas Clarkson, James Ryan, Jack Conan, Ryan Baird, Conor Murray, Jack Crowley.
FRANCE: Thomas Ramos; Damien Penaud, Pierre-Louis Barassi, Yoram Moefana, Louis Bielle-Biarrey; Romain Ntamack, Antoine Dupont (capt); Jean-Baptiste Gros, Peato Mauvaka, Uini Atonio; Thibaud Flament, Mickaël Guillard; François Cros, Paul Boudehent, Grégory Alldritt.
Replacements: Julien Marchand, Cyril Baille, Dorian Aldegheri, Emmanuel Meafou, Hugo Auradou, Oscar Jegou, Anthony Jelonch, Maxime Lucu.
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia).
Assistant referees: Matthew Carley (England), Christophe Ridley (England).
TMO: Ian Tempest (England).
Overall head-to-head: Played 103, France 59 wins, Ireland 37 wins, 7 draws.
In Ireland: Played 50, Ireland 23 wins, France 22 wins, 5 draws.
In France: Played 50, France 35 wins, Ireland 13 wins, 2 draws.
Neutral venues (all RWC): France 2 wins, Ireland 1 win.
Betting: 5-6 Ireland, 19-1 Draw, 11-10 France. Handicap odds (France +1 pt) Evs Ireland, 16-1 Draw, Evs France.
Forecast: Ireland. Maybe. Just.
