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Joe Schmidt’s detail will be devilishly difficult to counter but Ireland can still win

This group of Australia players seems to bear a remarkable resemblance to the Leinster squad when Schmidt first arrived in Dublin

Australia coach Joe Schmidt is superb at analysing the opposition and devising a strategy to expose their vulnerabilities. Photograph: Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images
Australia coach Joe Schmidt is superb at analysing the opposition and devising a strategy to expose their vulnerabilities. Photograph: Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

Joe Schmidt’s return to Dublin will guarantee a laser focus during this week’s Ireland training at the high-performance centre in Abbotstown. That’s not to say it wouldn’t be sharp and on point normally, but those who have worked under Australia’s head coach know he is the perennial “man with a plan”.

Andy Farrell’s Ireland squad go into Saturday’s game following a confident performance in victory over Fiji. There may have been potential for a misstep and a disjointed display, with seven changes to the starting 15 from the Argentina match and a few more on the bench, but that notion was quickly put to bed as Ireland hit their stride early and never relinquished control.

Fiji’s low energy and distracted performance was at odds with the win over Wales or the quality of rugby produced at times in the World Cup, and they were relegated to fleeting cameos, the most eye-catching of which was in the creative element of the try scored by teenage replacement Setareki Turagacoke.

Ireland’s performance was noise-cancelling, for now, in terms of the external mutterings that grew a little louder after the New Zealand and Argentina matches. Those who look to find fault will continue to do so but for others with a more open mind Farrell’s side got most things right, from selection to the way the team performed. Fiji gave them a significant helping hand, with 17 penalties and 33 missed tackles.

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We often speak about the mentality required to win when pressure is at its most suffocating in matches that matter, but in my experience the facility to maintain standards and execution when the pressure is off can almost be as challenging. This is not meant to be disrespectful to Fiji, Ireland expected to win that match and the only question for me was around performance. Young and old combined nicely to discharge the task.

Ireland were smart with how and where they attacked, they pulled players out of the defensive line and let the ball do the hard work via a nuanced passing game. Debutant Gus McCarthy provided two deft touches for try assists, as did captain Caelan Doris and scrumhalf Craig Casey. The home side were sensible to impose a structure that worked for them; the Fijians did little to try to break free.

The variety to Ireland’s shape in attack against Fiji is timely because Australia’s head coach Schmidt is one of the best I have played under in analysing the opposition. Not only that, but he devises a strategy to expose vulnerabilities.

From the outside, this group of Australian players bears a remarkable resemblance to the Leinster squad when Schmidt first walked through the door in Dublin in that it boasts the personnel to be successful with the players confident in their talent, habits and in the ability to make good decisions on the pitch.

Our focus at Leinster in the early days under Joe was less about structure and much more about execution. The transformation centred on the quality of passing, understanding running lines, ball placement at ruck time, rucking height and winning the shoulder early, collectively immortalised in the phrase with which he would become synonymous – “attention to detail”.

Australia’s focus is obvious: work on the system without inhibiting the individual and collective instincts in attack. As somebody that has been there before, I can say the results usually justify the means.

I wrote previously that England head coach Steve Borthwick is under significant pressure because a losing model is very difficult to buy into from a players’ perspective. The Wallabies win over England will have consolidated belief in the hard work Joe and his players were doing. It justifies the attention to detail and creates a foundation to build on.

It’s still a work in progress, as Australia’s defeat to Scotland at Murrayfield demonstrated. Too many errors cost the Wallabies, but credit must go to the Scots, who built on a strong platform provided by their tight five in the pack.

Wins over England and Wales allowed Australia to temporarily dream of a Grand Slam tour of the home nations. Defeat to Scotland, while disappointing, won’t cause Joe to lose any sleep. He will reset and devise a plan for next Saturday, into which he’ll get his players to buy. It then comes down to execution.

A victory against New Zealand would have given Ireland a “perfect” Autumn Nations series to date but that’s a rare occurrence. I recently listened to Mark Foster, the former British swimmer, speak about his mentality and how he reframes good and bad results as outcomes. Not a positive or negative result, just an outcome, from which he decides what he can control better to try to improve.

The primary outcome in sport is the result. Victories over Argentina and Fiji provided momentum going into Saturday’s game at the Aviva Stadium, while beneath those headline achievements, a few players raised their hands in selection terms.

Injuries to Jamie Osborne and Jacob Stockdale are untimely as both excelled in the Fiji match before being forced off. Osborne’s ceiling of excellence continues to grow higher and higher. It’s not just his talent but his composure and confidence.

Referee Hollie Davidson’s mic picked him up as he shouted at his Irish team-mate Joe McCarthy to get out of the way as the secondrow lumbered around the corner and, in doing so, stalled an attack that the young Osborne had spotted.

There were experimental aspects of team selection and shape that worked against Fiji, notably the difference that Casey and Sam Prendergast brought, with the playmaking role the responsibility of the outhalf. It offers a different dynamic and orientation in attack to Ireland’s first-choice halfbacks, where scrumhalf Jamison Gibson-Park dictates the tempo.

I’d expect Farrell to revert to his strongest possible line-up. It’s important that Ireland take some impetus into the Six Nations and that’s exactly what a victory would provide. There will be a strong emphasis on individual responsibility this week.

Genuine competition for places is starting to emerge within the Irish squad. It’s not unreasonable for the coaching group to expect players to justify faith in being selected and perform accordingly.

Schmidt’s Australia will bring a forensic examination of the component parts of Ireland’s game, and they’ll be squeezed in a way that they won’t have been previously in this playing window. The devil will be in the detail of how they cope and, from there, whether they are able to impose their game plan. I’d expect Ireland to be up to the task.