Whether they are reigning world champions on a good run of form, or in a rut, the Springboks always arrive at a Rugby World Cup as a side no one wants to play against. And for good reason.
South Africa’s record at the World Cup makes it obvious why they are so feared, regardless of form. Since they made their entry to the tournament, in its third instalment in 1995, the Boks have won three titles out of the seven they’ve competed in.
They have played 43 matches at Rugby World Cups and have won 36 for an 84 per cent winning ratio. Only the All Blacks, who have played in every tournament since its inception in 1987, have a better record. New Zealand have also lost seven matches, but have played 57 games for an 86 per cent winning ratio on their way to claiming three titles.
To put some further perspective on the Boks’ excellent record, the next best team at World Cups is Australia, who have endured 11 losses and have a 79 per cent winning average. Ireland, who, especially in the last decade, have been one of the better sides going into the tournament, have never advanced beyond the quarter-finals and suffered 16 defeats in 40 matches.
The Counter Ruck: the rugby newsletter from The Irish Times
Unbreakable, a cautionary tale about the heavy toll top-level rugby can take
Jacques Nienaber: ‘It was never the case that Rassie and I didn’t enjoy Munster or Ireland’
Joe Schmidt factor makes Australia game special for Ireland and Andy Farrell
In 2019 the Boks became the first team to lose a match – their Pool opener against the All Blacks when they went down 23-13 – and go on to win the title.
All this points to a team who know how to get the job done under pressure. They don’t mind being called boring, they love being written off and they like nothing more than upsetting the status quo.
In 2019 they were ruthless after that opening loss to New Zealand. Once they hit the knockout stages they were primed and sure of their game plan. They simply powered past a Japan side in the quarter-finals by squeezing the life out of the Brave Blossoms. Japan’s high octane, offloading game was given no space to breathe as the Boks constricted the hosts in an ever tighter coil thanks to their monstrous pack.
In the semi-final they understood that Wales’ defence was probably the best they’d face and opted to just keep momentum through the boot. It was ugly and effective. They inched over the line thanks to a late Handre Pollard penalty.
In the final they produced a hybrid of everything they’d done before. There was the forward power, defensive zeal and artillery-like kicking. But there was also guile and finesse.
Makazole Mapimpi’s second-half try was a beautiful interplay between Malcolm Marx and Lukhanyo Am, before Mapimpi was put away. Their second try in the final had its genesis in smothering defence, and ended with the brilliant, stepping Cheslin Kolbe cutting the England defence apart.
Four years on and the Boks still possess all of those traits that were so effective in Japan, and they are more experienced. They have also added some quality personnel to the mix.
The emergence of wings Kurt-Lee Arendse and Canan Moodie has created a selection dilemma most coaches would envy. Damian Willemse, although a late replacement at the tournament in 2019, has completely taken over the Frans Steyn ‘all-rounder’ role, covering every position in the backline but scrumhalf.
Jaden Hendrikse and Grant Williams have come through as excellent halfback reserves to Faf de Klerk and Cobus Reinach, while flank/hooker Deon Fourie is a like-for-like replacement for Schalk Brits.
The Boks have benefited from World Rugby’s change in eligibility rules to include former Munster lock Jean Kleyn, who is experienced and rugged. Prop Ox Nche is another player to have come storming through since 2019 and Jasper Wiese is in an almighty battle with 2019 World Cup final player of the match Duane Vermeulen for the starting No 8 berth.
What coach Jacques Nienaber and director of rugby Rassie Erasmus have achieved in the past four years (well, three as South Africa played no Tests in 2020 due to the pandemic), is build enviable depth.
Until very recently they could say, without a hint of a lie, they had two equally good players covering every position. That changed recently with injuries to centre Lukhanyo Am, fly-half Handre Pollard and lock Lood de Jager.
The trio were not named in the Boks’ 33-man squad for the France defence, although Pollard is fit and ready to be recalled if anyone is injured. Am (knee) might still make an appearance later in the tournament and De Jager has a heart issue, so clarity on his health remains vague as it’s a personal issue.
Manie Libbok emergence as a quality flyhalf has been timely for the Boks as he brings several different skills to the mix. Libbok is a fine runner, visionary passer and adept at kicking with both feet. He is not a huge man but defends his channel well.
But, and this might still become the biggest ‘but’ to plague the Boks in knife-edge matches – his goal-kicking at Test level has been erratic. Libbok, at the time of writing, was only landing 65 per cent of his goals in Bok colours.
For the Stormers in the United Rugby Championship (URC), he has been at 75 per cent over two seasons while being the URC’s leading points’ scorer.
His current Test match kicking percentage simply won’t cut it, in a tight World Cup knockout match. Pollard landed 13 out of 15 kicks at goal in the semi-final and final four years ago. His late, angled penalty gave the Boks that 19-16 semi-final win over Wales.
One of those two misses was from 59-metres in the final, which was out of his range and simply a tactic to keep England pinned back. That’s the kicking consistency winning a World Cup demands.
Nienaber has bristled when questioned about Libbok’s goal-kicking, especially as he really has no other option with Pollard out of the mix – for now.
“If a hooker misses four lineouts, because it is a specialist skill that is there for the world to see, like [catching] the high ball, like kicking for goal, it is amplified a little bit,” Nienaber said in response to Libbok’s struggles from the tee.
“We are very happy with where Manie is. We prefer him creating eight tries for us and then work on his goalkicking.”
It does seem a cavalier attitude, but Nienaber was just defending his man. The management are fully aware that, to retain the title, goal-kicking will be crucial. They could possibly get through a tough pool with a 60 per cent goal-kicking success rate, but in the knockouts, every lost point is amplified.
And as for the Boks’ view of the tournament and the draw? Lock Eben Etzebeth perhaps summed up the mindset best.
“This is going to be one of the most competitive World Cups ever because there are so many teams putting up their hands to go on and win,” Etzebeth said.
“Some might say there is added pressure on us [as defending champions] and that teams will come for us, but I don’t know if that is the case. I think each team just wants it really badly. They don’t care about us; they just want to win the trophy. If anything, we put pressure on ourselves to go out there and win again.”
It would take a brave person to bet against them doing just that.
