Ulster V Leinster, Ravenhill (7.30)
Same competition, same match-up and largely the same personnel, but tonight's rematch is an altogether different brew than the Guinness Interprovincial meeting of a week ago. The venue has changed, most obviously, and so too the referee, unavoidably big influences, while the mindsets have changed completely, also unavoidably significant in a quirkily, quintessentially Irish way.
Although the recent trend in this fixture has curiously favoured the away side, until last Friday at Donnybrook anyhow, one can't imagine that the Ravenhill factor won't count for something tonight with a loud, partisan crowd expected.
All the more so as Ulster will be bouncing off a defeat, and have the whiff of revenge in their nostrils whereas Leinster have the challenge of recording back-to-back wins. To add to Ulster's backs-against-the-wall mindset, they know full well that tonight is already something of a point of no return. Defeat, and they can kiss goodbye to both their title prospects and a top two finish - and with it the guarantee, as opposed to probability, of European Cup rugby next success.
On the face of it, the stakes would appear to be higher for them, although in point of fact they're arguably as big for Leinster given Ulster's marginally better bonus points column. Effectively, it looks a decider for second place.
Although David McHugh surprisingly missed knock-ons and forward passes, he strove to let the game flow last week, but the presence of Bertie Smith as the evening's whistle-blower is liable to make for a more penalty-ridden affair. Furthermore, the forecast for the Ulster region is for heavy downpours this evening. Ulster report no major injuries and could field an unchanged side for the fourth game running, although Harry Williams' untypical delay hints he's considering changes.
Leinster's selection is more intriguing and possibly more significant. The loss of Shane Horgan is an obvious blow and the apparent choices are to pick Mark McHugh or Peter McKenna alongside Brian O'Driscoll, and in the latter case either play McHugh at outhalf or retain Simon Broughton, while Victor Costello faces a late fitness test.
The latter looks more suited to their wider running game, but McHugh's defence and tactical kicking are superior, making him arguably the better horses-for-courses choice. Either way, Ulster's inside backs look a more settled unit as does David Humphreys' command of the playmaking role, despite a handful of wayward passes last week.
One also presumes that Ulster will rectify much of their flawed line-out. All of this, coupled with the aforementioned mental backdrop and conditions, potentially makes for one of those impassioned, wild 'n wet Ravenhill nights akin to their European Cup run of two seasons ago.
Decision-making leadership and nerve on the big occasion are still not proven Leinster virtues. But if their scrum can press home a key edge, and their halves come through, then undoubtedly Brian O'Driscoll and Denis Hickie could be match-winners. And were they to win, it would be their biggest step forward yet.
ULSTER (possible): G Henderson; J Topping, R Constable, J Bell, T Howe; D Humphreys, B Free; J Fitzpatrick, R Weir, S Best, P Johns, G Longwell, R Nelson, T McWhirter, A Ward.
LEINSTER (possible): G Dempsey; D Hickie, B O'Driscoll, P McKenna, G D'Arcy; M McHugh B O'Meara; R Corrigan, S Byrne, G Halpin, L Cullen, M O'Kelly, E Miller, V Costello, L Toland (capt).
Referee: Bertie Smith (IRFU).
Last five meetings: ('98-99) Leinster 14 Ulster 34; Ulster 11 Leinster 35; ('99-2000) Leinster 15 Ulster 26; Ulster 22 Leinster 23; (2000-2001) Leinster 19 Ulster 6.
Overall c'ship meetings: Played 57, Ulster 26 wins, 3 draws, Leinster 28 wins. Last five interpros: Leinster - L W W L W. Ulster - W L L W L.
Odds (Paddy Powers): 4/7 Ulster, 14/1 Draw, 11/8 Leinster. Handicap odds (= Leinster +5pts) 10/11 Ulster, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 Leinster.
Forecast: Ulster to shade it.
