VICTORIES FOR the Ospreys and Glasgow Warriors last night at home to the Dragons and away to the Scarlets respectively mean that Leinster must beat Edinburgh at home tomorrow to secure a home semi-final in the Magners League next weekend.
Last night’s results – the Ospreys beat the Dragons by 42-10 and the Warriors won 37-32 away to the Scarlets with a bonus point – means both moved above Leinster and relegated them from first to third. Thus, a bonus-point defeat against Edinburgh at the RDS tomorrow (kick-off 6.15pm) would not even be enough to earn Leinster a home semi-final.
They need at least a draw, while victory against Edinburgh would ensure Michael Cheika’s team of a first-placed seeding and thus not only assure them of home advantage in the semi-finals but also in the final on May 29th, should they progress that far.
By dint of securing first place, they would also be at home to the fourth-placed finishers in next week’s semi-finals, as opposed to Glasgow, which as things stand would be Munster, though it could also be the Cardiff Blues.
For Munster, the equation is simple. They cannot obtain a home semi-final due to last night’s results, but to ensure the holders finish in the top four and have an opportunity to retain their title by perhaps playing Leinster next weekend, they need to emerge from their trek to Cardiff tomorrow (kick-off 6.15) with at least a bonus point.
However, victory for the Blues by more than seven points would see them finish above Munster on points’ difference, as Munster (+38) only have a five-point superiority over Cardiff (+33) going into that clash.
Edinburgh themselves still have an outside chance of reaching the play-offs, though only by dint of a bonus-point win over Leinster coupled with Cardiff beating Munster by more than seven points.
In the heel of the hunt, Leinster must win to earn a top seeding and home advantage all the way through to the final, while Munster must at least earn a losing bonus point to advance to the play-offs. Those two results would also mean the Irish rivals meet in next weekend’s semi-finals. Ulster’s win at home to Connacht at Ravenhill last night consigned the latter to 10th place. See also: page 7
