ATHLETICS: For all her courage and determination, Paul Radcliffe looks increasingly likely to end a fabulous career without an Olympic medal

Iano. greetings from font romeu. im working like a maniac 2 get this Radcliffe woman back running n in full admiration of her quest but such is her desire 2 get back that she will break me 1st as my thumbs are nearly beat n the only remedy 2 numb them is a bottle of Rose w assorted plate of cheeses in the hope that they will operate 2moro. g

KNOWING Ger Hartmann's Mormon-like attitude toward alcohol and strictly healthy diet I realised straightaway this was a serious text message. And the one thing he's never complained about before is sore thumbs.

Hartmann has had an association with Paula Radcliffe going back to 1997, and her first home away from her English home is his sports-injury clinic in Limerick. No one knows Radcliffe better than Hartmann (with the possible exception of her husband, Gary Lough) and no one knows more about her athletic capabilities either.

Long before she took to the marathon, he was sure she'd break the world record, and when she ran that stunning 2:15.25 in London in April 2003, no one was less surprised than Hartmann. Since then, he's predicted with remarkable accuracy the likely outcome every time Radcliffe has gone to the starting line.

I remember another text message he sent me a few days before the Olympic marathon in Athens, explaining that Radcliffe was still troubled by a calf-muscle injury and had a "50-50 chance" of making it through the race.

That proved remarkably accurate too as she very nearly made it but eventually dropped out at 23 miles

So when Hartmann now says Radcliffe has a "50-to-one chance" of making the Olympic marathon in Beijing, clearly her chances are slim.

The problem is a stress fracture of her left femur, the main leg bone, extending from hip to knee. She sustained the injury in April at her training base in Font Romeu in the French Pyrenees. To add to the problem, it was only fully diagnosed in May, at which point Radcliffe was told she'd need 12 weeks' rest to fully heal. That effectively ended her chance of running in Beijing, but anyone who has followed Radcliffe's career knows she's as tough as nails and would not give up easily.

Hartmann was in Font Romeu for the past 10 days to help get her back running as soon as possible and has just returned for another week. "I do fear she is fighting a losing battle," he says.

Her Olympic marathon is eight weeks from this Sunday, and if she sticks to the 12-week time-frame, Radcliffe shouldn't run again for another four weeks. Considering she hasn't run a step in the past 14 weeks, time is not on her side. So she intends to cheat a little by starting to run again in two weeks' time.

Meanwhile, Radcliffe being Radcliffe, no effort is being spared. Every morning she does an hour of aqua-running in the pool, wearing a buoyancy vest. Ten minutes later, she does an hour on a machine that mimics cross-country skiing. In the afternoon she does another 40 minutes of aqua-running.

While physically it does not quite match her usual 130 miles a week of running, it does at least match it mentally.

She also got an Alter-G treadmill specially delivered to Font Romeu, at a cost of €70,000. This is no ordinary treadmill; it was developed by NASA to help astronauts exercise in space.

It features an inflatable chamber that fits around the athlete, allowing her to run as usual but minus as much as 80 per cent of her body weight. In other words, it significantly reduces impact, and it feels like you're jogging on the moon.

"The thing about Paula is, if she can get four or five weeks of running behind her she'll still want to go to the starting line," says Hartmann. "She's that determined. And of course you never know. It could be a slow race, and the bronze medal could be there for her, and I know she'd be happy with that. So she'll put the final decision off for as long as she can, and she is such an amazing athlete that you just don't know."

But at 34, Radcliffe's chance of winning that elusive Olympic gold medal - or Olympic medal of any colour - is now surely lost.

Fifth in Atlanta and fourth in Sydney, she is left with perhaps only one hope: that some Olympian out there is thinking of doing an Emil Zatopek.

There have been many great sporting gestures, but arguably none has surpassed that of Zatopek. In the world of distance running Zatopek is immortal. Like Radcliffe, he never took short cuts, because he could not afford to. His talent was limited, so his commitment was absolute.

He was probably the first athlete to understand what it meant to train and race on the edge of exhaustion, because he frequently pushed himself over that edge. Zatopek, like Radcliffe after him, went where no distance runner had gone before.

The Olympics too were the critical test of his greatness, and he didn't disappoint. After winning the 10,000 metres at the 1948 Olympics and adding silver in the 5,000 metres, Zatopek made Olympic history in 1952 - winning gold at 5,000 metres, 10,000 metres and marathon.

He was a proud Czechoslovakian, and after his retirement in 1957 he often invited former rivals to his home in Prague. In 1966, the Australian Ron Clarke paid a visit, the year after he had set 12 world records in 44 days. Clarke had always admired Zatopek, not just for his own 18 world records, but most of all for his impeccable Olympic record. What Clarke did not realise was the admiration was mutual.

Clarke's own Olympic record was a source of huge frustration. In 1964 he finished third in a 10,000 metres he was heavily fancied to win, then placed ninth at 5,000 metres and marathon.

Four years later, in the high altitude of Mexico City, he was fifth in the 5,000 metres and sixth in the 10,000 metres. To this day he's remembered as one of the greatest athletes never to win Olympic gold.

What Clarke also did not realise was that Zatopek had a particular reason for inviting him to Prague. After their two days together, Zatopek drove Clarke to the airport, walked him through customs, and in saying a final farewell, slipped the Australian a small package, telling him, "Look after this. You deserve it."

Shortly after take-off Clarke opened the package to find Zatopek's 10,000-metre gold from 1952, with an added inscription: "To Ron Clarke".

That gesture has never been surpassed, at least not in Olympic terms, and Clarke knows that.

"No one cherishes any gift more than I do, my only Olympic gold medal," he later said, "and not because of what it is, but because of the man whose spirit it represents."

Zatopek died in November 2000 at the age of 78. I don't know if he ever felt like giving away another of his medals, but that spirit Clarke refers to would surely empathise with Radcliffe, because it looks inevitable she too will be remembered as one of the greatest athletes never to win Olympic gold.