The near annual apotheosis of racing’s latest wunderkind goes ahead in Saturday’s Darley Dewhurst Stakes where Aidan O’Brien has a record ninth victory in Britain’s most prestigious two-year-old prize of the season in his sights.
The Lion In Winter tops a Ballydoyle trio that goes up against a two-pronged attack by racing’s other superpower operation, Godolphin, in Newmarket. A single plucky outsider prepared to take them on is Hugo Palmer’s Seagulls Eleven.
It feels rather less than a year since O’Brien saddled City Of Troy to win the 2023 Dewhurst and quickly acclaimed him as the best he’s ever had through his hands.
That billing, and the “our Frankel” label, has contributed to how City Of Troy goes into next month’s Breeders’ Cup Classic with a Derby, Eclipse and Juddmonte International hat-trick under his belt and still viewed as having something to prove.
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Undue expectations accompany Dewhurst winners almost as regularly as the title of Europe’s champion two-year-old.
City Of Troy has hardly been the only Dewhurst winner built up to the skies, and he can at least justify most of the hype, unlike prematurely acclaimed talents over the years such as Air Force Blue and Xaar.
Whether any of Saturday’s field goes on to prove themselves more Mill Reef than Pinatubo remains to be seen, but the impact of what looks a straightforward head-to-head between the sport’s biggest rivals will reverberate through the winter.
This week’s extravagant spending at Newmarket’s yearling sales contained some new big spenders hoping to strike at the elite level, but “old firm” Dewhurst dominance like this underlines the scale of their task.
It’s also emphasised by how €375,000 paid out by Coolmore’s partners for The Lion In Winter at last year’s Orby Sale was comparatively cheap.
That purchase was apparently due to the colt’s outstanding appearance, as produce by his sire, Sea The Stars, are not usually snapped up by the partnership.
Sceptics might suggest the comparative lack of fanfare surrounding him after two unbeaten starts may be a reluctance to promote someone else’s stallion, although an impressive victory up the Rowley Mile might make that academic.
Some heavy favourites have come into the Dewhurst with more reputation than the sort of substantial form achieved by The Lion In Winter in York’s Acomb Stakes a couple of months ago.
Fears the test might be too sharp proved groundless as he won well from Wimbledon Hawkeye, who recently landed the Royal Lodge. The Waco Kid in fourth has also won a Group Three since.
Godolphin’s number one, Shadow Of Light, emulated his half-brother Earthlight a couple of weeks ago by landing the Middle Park. Now he will try to pull off a double last accomplished by O’Brien’s US Navy Flag in 2017.
William Buick has opted for Shadow Of Light but Godolphin’s other hope, Ancient Truth, impressed when landing the Superlative during the summer – a race won by City Of Troy a year ago – and also had Wimbledon Hawkeye behind him then.
With Camille Pissarro upsetting the expected order in France last weekend, and a suspicion that this season’s juvenile fillies are superior, the way is open for one of these colts to sweep up a championship.
Whether they go on to deliver on that precociousness in 2025 is far from certain, although the range of possibilities for a colt like The Lion In Winter could be considerable.
“Everything seems good, and he’s had his two runs now,” O’Brien said on Friday. “No doubt it is important he comes here. If he is a Guineas horse it is very important to have experience [of Newmarket] and you know they are going to handle it, so if there is any ironing out you have to do, you have to do it.”
Ballydoyle is doubly represented in a preceding pair of Group Three contests on Newmarket’s “Future Champions” programme that ultimately leads up to a very different kind of test.
Irish-trained horses have won the Cesarewitch five times in the last six years and the raiders are heavily represented again.
That the historic marathon handicap hasn’t filled out its maximum field capacity will be a worry for cross-channel officials, and quite what the race shape would be without the 13 Irish runners is debatable.
Queenstown is topweight while just a pair of home hopefuls are among the top 10 rated.
Willie Mullins pulled off a hat-trick between 2018 and 2020 and relies solely on the ante-post plunge Sea Of Sands. He was a German Group Three winner before winning his sole start for the champion jumps trainer over flights at Listowel last month.
