As scenarios for Classic success go, Saturday’s Juddmonte Irish Oaks at the Curragh looks all but perfect for Savethelastdance.
Having fluffed her lines when an odds-on favourite at Epsom last month, Aidan O’Brien’s filly is presented with what might be near-ideal circumstances in this weekend’s €500,000 feature.
Ground already containing a significant ease is set to get considerably softer due to significant forecast rainfall at HQ.
Since Savethelastdance won her maiden on heavy, and subsequently produced a memorable 22-length rout on soft ground in the Cheshire Oaks, it’s hardly a bad outlook for her chances, whatever about those attending the fourth home Classic of 2023.
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It is also the Curragh, rather than Epsom’s switchback test where on quick conditions seven weeks ago she fought hard but couldn’t repel Soul Sister’s late thrust.
If that form hasn’t been exactly boosted since, considering Savethelastdance’s main threat is widely expected to come from Warm Heart, it might not prove too relevant.
Pre-race stamina doubts about Warm Heart at Royal Ascot were dismissed in a Ribblesdale Staks victory over both Lumiere Rock and the sole cross-channel challenger in Saturday’s classic, Bluestocking.
If Met Éireann is correct, though, it’s likely to be a very different test of staying power at the Curragh.
Having completed his set of Curragh Classics on Auguste Rodin in the Derby three weeks ago, Ryan Moore is aiming at a third Oaks success on Savethelastdance, who is the Englishman’s pick from four Ballyodyle runners.
For O’Brien the target is a record seventh Irish Oaks victory in a campaign that has already seen him knock records over like skittles.
Snowfall’s victory two years ago saw the Irishman equal Michael Stoute’s tally in the fillies’ Classic and the quartet of opponents up against him on Saturday face a major task.
Colin Keane teamed up with Ralph Beckett and Juddmonte to land last year’s Derby on Westover and has been engaged again for the big-race sponsor’s hope, Bluestocking.
She has always had a reputation but perhaps one that might serve it up most to Ballydoyle is Azazat.
Dermot Weld’s filly started favourite for the maiden won by Savethelastdance and subsequently broke her duck on very soft going at Leopardstown.
It was very different conditions in last month’s Munster Oaks, when edged out by the older mare Rosscarbery after getting a bump in the closing stages.
However, if the O’Brien team could have written out the terms and conditions of a Classic test for Savethelastdance they could hardly have come up better than this.
The weather outlook may play a major role in the following Comer Group Curragh Cup, where Ballydoyle’s Emily Dickinson renews rivalry with Rosscarbery.
The latter got the better of her younger opponent in last year’s Stannera Stakes despite conceding a massive 19lbs.
Rosscarbery is back up in trip for this Group Two having got wiped out by Via Sistina in the closing stages of the Pretty Polly Stakes earlier this month.
Should the going get very testing, however, it might tip things the way of Emily Dickinson who ran in the Ascot Gold Cup last time.
Saturday’s other Group Two is the Barberstown Castle Sapphire Stakes where dig in the ground could help local hope Moss Tucker overturn recent form with both Art Power and Ladies Church.
With Ben Coen suspended, Moore teams up with his old weighroom rival Johnny Murtagh for Ladies Church, who landed the race last year.
Moore will also fancy his chances in the Group Three Jebel Ali Anglesey Stakes with the filly Pearls And Rubies.
She drops back in trip having finished runner-up in Royal Ascot’s Chesham but speed shouldn’t be an issue judged by her maiden success at the minimum trip.
O’Brien won the Anglesey with a filly, Actress, in 2017, while Fire Lily was another to beat the colts in 2011.
The bluest of bluebloods on sight at the Curragh on Saturday, however, is surely the newcomer Henry Longfellow in the opening juvenile maiden.
A son of Dubawi he is the second foal out of Minding, the outstanding seven-time Group One winner whose top-flight victories ranged in distance from seven furlongs to a mile and a half. This is her first offspring to make the racecourse.
Saturday’s big handicap pot is the €100,000 Paddy Power Scurrys which has a pair of cross-channel raiders in Strike Red and Albasheer. Co Dublin trainer Ado McGuinness has a pair of chances in the big sprint and very soft ground could see Laugh A Minute outrun big odds.
In other news, Oisín Murphy’s services have been snapped up by Johnny Murtagh for Shartash in Newbury’s Group Three Hackwood Stakes on Saturday.
Last year’s Railway Stakes winner has had just two runs this season, finishing fifth to The Antarctic in the Lacken Stakes at Naas in May.
