For Munster, a trip to the grassy Gnoll in Neath today affords the chance to exorcise some theories about their away-day demons. In seven attempts, the province has never won a European Cup match away from home but they've probably never had a better chance than this afternoon, nor would there be a more opportune moment.

Victory in Neath, coupled with an anticipated win for pool leaders Perpignan in Padova tonight, would leave Declan Kidney's team virtually in the knock-out stages for the first time. They would require just a point from their concluding games, at home to Perpignan and away to Padova, to copper-fasten their path to the quarter-finals. By comparison, although defeat would not be disastrous, it would open up an unnerving three-way fight for the second qualifying place.

Admittedly, their winless sequence of seven games on the road in the past four years is coloured by the fact that four of them have been in France. Aside from Harlequins, Munster's two other losses were both in Cardiff.

This transitional Neath side are not in that league, as their dismal offering in the first meeting in Cork emphasised. A strictly lightweight Neath hadn't the physical presence to compete with Munster around the fringes or across the gain line, although events that day may have been misleading.

Neath have made six changes from the side beaten by Padova last week, also resulting in six changes from the team beaten in Cork.

Their Tongan tight-head Damien Penisini comes in for his first game of the season after injury while South African Sean van Rensburg is brought into a remodelled back-row which includes their prolific Kiwi Scott Eggar.

"This is a much stronger side, the best side we've put out in this tournament," says the team manager Mike Cuddy, adding: "We believe we can win."

Stung by their abysmal offering in the first clash, Neath, he says, will be an altogether different proposition in the enclosed offerings.

This may well be the case but, even so, Munster ought to have enough firepower up front to establish a winning platform. The likes of Peter Clohessy Mick Galwey, who has scored four tries in three games, and Anthony Foley have finally hit form, Eddie Halvey is playing well and Alan Quinlan is on fire.

A striking feature of the season has been Munster's slick and varied attacking gambits off close-in line-outs, yielding tries in each of their last four outings, but the scoring rate off attacking line-outs this season appears down.

Those ploys could well be worth another try or two.

Furthermore, since the first meeting Mick O'Driscoll has added some youthful vim and vigour to the tight five; Peter Stringer has plugged the injury-cursed scrum-half position well; Barry Everitt ought to have come on for the additional couple of outings; and if Rhys Ellison, especially, can hit the ground running after his two-month lay-off then Munster really should have too many arrows in their quiver for Neath to contend with.

It may well be a good deal closer than the 16-point handicap the bookies are offering, but Munster ought finally to get that statistical monkey off their backs.