RUGBY:SATURDAY WEEK'S Heineken Cup final between Leinster and the Northampton Saints at the Millennium Stadium is unlikely to be a sell-out in the stadium which has a capacity just shy of 75,000. Sources in Cardiff have estimated that the prospective attendance is likely to be in the region of 70,000.

There was a staggered sale of roughly 50,000 tickets to the public for the final over the last nine months and this is fully subscribed to, with approximately 5,000 of those sold in the last fortnight.

Leinster and Northampton each received an allocation of 7,500 tickets and while both clubs took their full allocation – Leinster have sold their full entitlement – the English club are set to return a small number of tickets to ERC. The Saints permitted season ticket holders and associate members to buy one ticket apiece, while Leinster also have a clearly defined purchase structure that prioritised their season ticket holders.

The remaining allocation of about 9,000 tickets covered ERC rugby’s own distribution requirements, which included sponsors, media, broadcast and print, and also those allotted to hospitality packages. A number were offered to Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) debenture holders.

There was also a combined ticket category that takes in admittance to the Amlin Challenge Cup – which takes place tomorrow week between Harlequins and Stade Français at the Cardiff City stadium – and Heineken Cup finals.

As of yesterday afternoon, tickets for the Heineken Cup final were still available on the Ticketmaster website. An inquiry for four match tickets prompted an offer of four for the West Stand, Section U-29 (just to the right of the halfway line, categorised as the second tier in the stadium) for €81.90 per ticket or €327.60 for the four. This includes a booking surcharge on top of a ticket with a face value of €80.50. Cheaper category tickets were available but not the least expensive category, €34.50 plus booking fee.

The public sale figure of 50,000 includes supporters who took an unrequited punt on their team making the final. They’ll try to sell them on if they don’t fancy travelling to Cardiff. The expectation is that that this year’s attendance at the European club rugby’s showpiece won’t match the three previous finals at the Millennium stadium.

The biggest crowd at the Cardiff venue was for the 2002 decider between the Leicester Tigers and Munster, which attracted 74,600 supporters. The 2006 final between Munster and Biarritz Olympique saw 74,537 at the venue, while the Irish province’s second outright success in 2008 when the beat Toulouse drew 74,417 in to watch.

The current financial climate is different from the less financially constrained times of the three previous European finals held in Cardiff. There is also the fact Cardiff hotel prices don’t reflect the current financial downturn and even day trips to the Principality with a match ticket will cost in the region of €450.

That’s if you can source a day trip with an official tour operator. Marathon Travel’s two one-day packages, by air and by ferry with coach transfers are both sold out. Dawson Travel has a package available at €349, including taxes, for a one day trip by air but this does not include a match ticket priced at €85.

There is also the small matter of Leinster potentially making it to a Magners League final the following week that could necessitate a trip – potentially an overnight – to Thomond Park should Munster beat the Ospreys and Joe Schmidt’s side prove victorious against Ulster.

Two other Heineken Cup finals were played in the Welsh capital city but at the Arms Park, recording attendance figures of 21,800 for the inaugural decider between Toulouse and Cardiff (1996) and 41,664 in 1997 when Bath defeated Leicester Tigers.

Local interest in the decider was probably diluted by the cost of attending Welsh matches in last November’s Test series, the home matches in the Six Nations Championship and interest in watching the national team’s upcoming game against the Barbarians at the Millennium Stadium on June 4th.

On a tangential note, Leinster confirmed they have sold over 14,000 tickets for tomorrow night’s Magners League semi-final against Ulster at the RDS.