Bulgaria’s recent results suggest an easy home win for us but the reality is we don’t do easy home wins since the move to Croker

WHEN THE initial draw was made in December 2006, and fixtures agreed later, results of the games involving Ireland, Bulgaria and Italy were always going to be key to qualification.

We have arrived at the point of three of these decisive encounters in a reasonably healthy state with 10 points from a possible 12. But, as has been frequently pointed out in media circles, we have failed to beat a nation of real significance in a competitive fixture since the Netherlands were famously vanquished at the old Lansdowne in September 2001.

Ever since the enforced move to Croke Park performances at home have been patchy with scrappy wins against Wales, Slovakia, San Marino, Cyprus and Georgia, while draws were achieved against the Czech Republic, Germany and the mighty Cyprus again.

Apart from the Czech and German games, Bulgaria would probably rank above the others in quality but fortunately for us we cross paths at a time of considerable turmoil in their ranks. Their team is nowhere near the standard of the side that reached the 1994 World Cup semi-final.

The loss of Dimitri Berbatov, Martin Petrov and Valeri Bojinov weakens them some more. Losing such quality, combined with three draws in the group so far and a 6-1 thrashing by Serbia recently would suggest an easy home win for us but the reality is we don’t do easy home wins since the move to Croker, and it’s usually a subdued atmosphere for soccer.

Maybe the worm will turn today.

Player contributions to pre-match press conferences are usually quite dull. In my own experience, I was regularly frustrated by the reluctance of many to share the media load in a double-match build-up such as this but in the current glasnost, a huge number of players (26-man squads and the like) and assistant coaches, there appears to be no shortage of voices. I often squirmed at the mundane replies given by so many players at my side in contrast to those of other sports that we have grown accustomed to. This week some of the squad have surpassed themselves.

“We are picking the strongest squad we possibly can,” said Richard Dunne “But the quality has always been in the squad and maybe at times it hasn’t been selected.”

That’s simply not true Richard. The absence of Stephen Ireland, Lee Carsley, Clinton Morrison, Andy Reid and even Andy O’Brien would contradict that statement – all the above are having a good season at a high level (I know Andy O’Brien had a blip recently) and they each play in positions where Giovanni Trapattonis squad is short on either quality or big-time experience. Each of the above have, in my opinion, more to offer than many currently in the squad.

On current form the selection of men like Caleb Folan, Liam Miller and Alex Bruce, and now Anthony Stokes, can only be justified by the manager and his assistants’ stubbornness.

That said, if Trapattoni qualifies for South Africa with this selection policy, he deserves all the ensuing praise.

Bulgaria are shorn of quality central attackers in the absence of Berbatov, Bojinov and Valeri Domovchiyski yet our back four have looked less convincing in the recent home games against a very limited Cyprus and Georgia.

The return of Paul McShane to the right back slot would reform the unit that was demolished by Poland’s Guerraro and Lewandowski in the 3-2 defeat last November. Dunne recovered from a poor start against Georgia and has generally been outstanding but his partnership with John O’Shea has yet to be tested against top-class opposition, apart from the Poles. We can expect a slightly better challenge than the previous games.

The absence of Damien Duff is a blow for the two games ahead but he’s already missed out earlier in the campaign and Aiden McGeady posed more of a threat last time out. His ability to run at defenders allied, hopefully, by a better quality of crossing could well be our key to unlocking the at times physically strong and rough Bulgarians (they certainly knocked the Italians about a bit).

My concerns about our midfield combination continue and, as stated previously, we struggle to deal with teams who play a three-man central midfield against Glenn Whelan and Keith Andrews or Darron Gibson. Our ineffectiveness in this area was also brutally exposed by Poland, Serbia and Georgia at times, especially when forced to chase games.

Stephen Hunt offers a more defensive balance to the unit with his energy and aggression. We cannot afford to allow Stanimir Stoilov’s three and sometimes five-man midfield to dictate the tempo.

Even Trap’s insistence on a massive work rate from his wide players does not always compensate for the lack of mobility from our central pair against players of genuine guile and passing ability. The concession of an early goal to Georgia forced a positive approach from Whelan and new boy Andrews and at times we even saw the full-backs overlap. I hope to see more of that today, to entertain those who are shelling out for tickets in spite of Trapattoni’s statements that only results count.

Up front we can be assured of a high work rate from Kevin Doyle and Robbie Keane, and while we still await Keane goals against major opposition, his recent run for Ireland and Spurs provides some optimism. Doyle’s energy and competitiveness always provide a threat. Both have suffered from the lack of clever service that could be provided by the absent Ireland and Andy Reid.

Soft goals and chances have been conceded at set-pieces, which is almost criminal at this level. Also the quality of delivery and the threat provided by our own set-piece has diminished substantially. I presume there will be an improvement at both ends today, given the consistency of selection and time on the training ground this week.

We can hardly expect the cauldron-like atmosphere of last Saturday’s venues in the Millennium and O2 but I hope the crowd can rouse themselves from the barely interested stance evident in the first 70 minutes against Georgia. This is a massive game for both countries and although Bulgaria will be out of the picture if defeated today, a close look at their remaining fixtures shows that another draw would leave the door ajar for them with four home games still to come.

Should we beat Bulgaria? Yes we should. Will we do it? I think so but don’t expect too much entertainment.