Massive Melbourne Cup gamble on O'Brien's Mahler

Aidan O'Brien's five-strong Breeders' Cup team arrived at Monmouth Park last night but their arrival is unlikely to have the …

Aidan O'Brien's five-strong Breeders' Cup team arrived at Monmouth Park last night but their arrival is unlikely to have the same sort of impact that their stable companions in Australia have already had as the St Leger runner-up Mahler is a monster ante-post gamble for Tuesday week's Melbourne Cup

Both Mahler and Scorpion had only just arrived following a marathon 36-hour trip down under when Mahler became the medium of a huge plunge that is estimated to leave Australian bookmakers open to a $2 million pay-out.

"One of the biggest plunges in recent times," was how one bookmaker's representative described the gamble which took place only 12 hours after the horse arrived. One punter alone stands to win almost Aus$600,000.

Having been as high as 25 to 1 in some Australian lists, Mahler is now as low as 10 to 1.

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Both Irish stars are reportedly in good form despite a lengthy trip that took them from Shannon to Luxembourg, where there was a six-hour quarantine stay. They then flew to Singapore and on to Melbourne where there was another two-hour quarantine delay on the tarmac before finally settling into Sandown racecourse on the outskirts of the Victorian capital.

"Scorpion has been to the US and Hong Kong so he's used to travelling and the other horse is a real gentleman and laid back," reported O'Brien's representative, Andrew Murphy, to local reporters.

Closer to home, the Aintree Grand National hero Silver Birch could be in line for a return to action this weekend with the Woodlands Park 100 Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle a possible date at Naas on Saturday.

"If the ground is safe he will be at Naas or there is another race for him at Galway on Monday if need be. But really we want it to be yielding to soft," said Silver Birch's trainer, Gordon Elliot, yesterday.

"I would like to get a race into him before the cross-country event at Cheltenham next month. The plan is the same as last year, mess around in cross country races and get him ready for Aintree. He loves racing so I'll have to keep him busy," he added.

The Sunday highlight at Galway will be the Grade Three Hartmann Jewellers Ballybrit Novice Chase for which 12 entries remain. They include the Michael O'Leary-owned pair, Drunken Disorderly and Call Bewleys, as well last January's Pierse Hurdle winner Spring The Que who hasn't appeared since his big handicap victory.

Doncaster's Racing Post Trophy is the Group One highlight in Britain this weekend and O'Brien could attempt to secure a fifth win in the race with both Frozen Fire and the five-and-a-half-length Tipperary maiden winner King Of Rome.

However, it is Jessica Harrington's Beresford Stakes winner Curtain Call who is a 4 to 1 market leader in some ante-post lists against the Royal Lodge winner City Leader and a pair of Godolphin entries, Ibn Khaldun and Iguaza Falls.

Today's home action is an all-flat card at Navan where unseasonal fast ground is being forecast. That might be a problem for a Sadler's Wells newcomer like Ballydoyle's Kingdom Of Naples in the mile maiden but he is out of Inkling who was a speedy two-year-old type.

It has been confirmed that Saturday night's Breeders' Cup Turf will be the final race of Dylan Thomas's career and he will immediately be retired to Coolmore Stud afterwards, writes Brian O'Connor.

A statement by the Coolmore manager Christy Grassick said yesterday: "Dylan Thomas has everything it takes to make a great stallion and Danehill is already proving a remarkable sire of sires with Danehill Dancer, Rock Of Gibraltar, Dansili and Danetime all enjoying a great year."

Dylan Thomas is in line for horse of the year honours after securing a fourth Group One victory of 2007 in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe earlier this month.

It added to wins in the Prix Ganay, the King George and the Irish Champion Stakes.

The son of Danehill became the first horse to win back-to-back Champion Stakes at Leopardstown and his Group One tally last year also included the Budweiser Irish Derby.

Brian O'Connor

Brian O'Connor

Brian O'Connor is the racing correspondent of The Irish Times. He also writes the Tipping Point column