RACING/Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview: The first mile is likely to determine Beef Or Salmon's fate and if the youngster is jumping well and in a rhythm by then he will be able to bring that powerful finishing kick he has to the party and maybe upset the favourite.
Beef Or Salmon might exercise the thoughts of most Irish punters, but it's hard to escape the suspicion that today's Tote Gold Cup really is all about Best Mate.
It has become almost a mantra by now that history is against him, that only five horses have ever won more than one Gold Cup and that all of them were pretty much legends.
Is Best Mate a potential legend? There are thousands of teary, country types over here who will tell you he is, and a few rougher, more cynical types who bring a much more bleary eye to the question.
But as questions go, it's a pretty highfalutin one compared to the queries hanging over Beef Or Salmon's elegant head.
Just one season's fencing which has consisted of just four races, admittedly against the best that the local scene in Ireland has to offer.
The best of the rest at home consists of Colonel Braxton and Harbour Pilot, both of which run today. If they are truly Gold Cup standard, then Beef Or Salmon really is the wonder horse his fans would have us believe. We will only know that at 3.30 p.m.
Michael Hourigan continues to release the signals of a man happy with his horse but aware of the task ahead. A pair of Gold Cup placings with Dorans Pride (1997-98) insures he knows how hard Beef Or Salmon's job is.
However, yesterday he said: "Dorans Pride could account for Commanche Court most of the time and he was only a length behind Best Mate last year. Beef Or Salmon is far better than Dorans Pride ever was."
It was closer to two lengths in that Gold Cup, but at this stage, after a year of anxious preparation, the eye sees what it wants to.
And Hourigan admitted: "He's the baby in the race, has a lot to do and needs luck in running. But if he gets it he should run a huge race."
The first mile is likely to determine Beef Or Salmon's fate. If the youngster is jumping and in a rhythm by then he will be able to bring that powerful finishing kick to the party.
But the worry must be that his first encounter with real championship pace over these fences could unsettle him. It certainly hampered the novice Rhinestone Cowboy in Tuesday's Champion Hurdle.
It's also an inescapable fact that just two novices have won the Gold Cup since the war and the last to try, Gloria Victis in 2000, died in the attempt.
In theory there should be plenty of each way value on offer.
Hussard Collonges is apparently nailed on for a place if you listen to the racecourse gossip, but it's hard to see him adding to last year's SunAlliance upset.
Behrajan's ideal is a small field that he can dominate; Valley Henry's owner thinks his other runner, See More Business, the veteran 1999 winner, has a better chance; and the ground is not ideal for last year's runner-up, Commanche Court.
On that occasion Best Mate had everything his own way. Killarney-born Jim Culloty couldn't have drawn out a more perfect passage through the race if he had taken a compass and ruler out with him.
The critics will say he had less than a couple of lengths in hand at the line, but Best Mate's huge band of supporters will counter that he was idling.
Significantly, he also looked to do the same thing in the King George against Marlborough.
Ever since Tony McCoy has said every other Gold Cup contender is battling for second. Norman Williamson, Colonel Braxton's rider, echoed that yesterday: "I'd have to pick Best Mate as the likely winner."
But perhaps most significant of all is that Best Mate's nine chase starts have resulted in seven wins and two seconds.
On that evidence, Best Mate is at the very least sure to be involved in the finish. At most he might just become a little bit of a legend.
