The visit of French champions Stade Francais a fortnight ago may have carried more lustre but the visit of the less celebrated Begles/Bordeaux to Donnybrook this evening actually carries more importance. Leinster may not have liked the feeling of defeat to Stade, but they could afford it, whereas they scarcely can this evening.

However you look at it, this is the pivotal European Cup Pool A game for the Azzuri in terms of their qualification prospects for the knock-out stages. In short, they desperately need a win, both to revive their season and keep their European aspirations on track.

A victory over the French side (without a point so far) would leave Leinster requiring only one more win, at home to Llanelli in their final game, to ensure progress - with the proviso that Stade win all their six pool games.

Alternatively, a defeat would open the door for Begles, while placing Leinster on the back foot; probably requiring them to beat Begles in the return fixture as well as overcoming Llanelli.

Nor do Leinster go into this game with anything like the same degree of confidence and form that they approached the Stade match. Then, they were on a run of four successive wins and were the form province in the country. Since then they've lost to Stade and Connacht, seemingly passing on the form mantle to Munster, whom they meet in a fortnight in the interpro decider.

What's more, they do so with far less self-assurance, as is manifested in three selection changes since the Connacht setback. Despite Alan McGowan's haul of 180 points in this competition, Mike Ruddock has decided to dispense with a player who was something of a lucky talisman for him in the past in the hope that Richie Murphy can provide more control as playmaker as well as contributing some lengthier line-kicking.

The recall of John McWeeney is equally surprising, though apparently the St Mary's winger is a rejuvenated man since his stuttering start to the season. He scored three tries last week, apparently flattened anything that moved in training, and will give Leinster an effective close-in target runner off set-piece and second phase ball.

With Pat Ward also recalled as a more orthodox open-side, this should enhance Leinster's continuity. Nevertheless, however much Murphy may or not be able to steady the ship, the lack of leadership in the team is palpable, especially when the well rehearsed running game ceases to dominate and Plan B is called for. Furthermore, the propensity to self-destruct or collapse in the final quarter has almost become a self-fulfilling prophecy of late.

Testing though this opposition is bound to be, at their best, with another good-sized and vocal Friday night crowd behind them, Leinster should be capable of beating Begles given the latter's home and away defeats to Connacht in the European Shield last year.

However, deserving group winners though Connacht undoubtedly were, you have to wonder how seriously Begles took the competition when compared to their subsequent results in the French championship.

They extended eventual champions Stade Francais to a 50-49 aggregate win over two legs in the quarter-finals and lost to the same opposition in the semi-finals of the Coupe de France by 38-25.

They've also strengthened their squad since then, although they have begun this season poorly, registering only one win in their opening four championship games before losing to both Stade and Llanelli in this competition - another promising form guide in Leinster's favour.

Coach Philippe Berbizier reacted to the latter setback by wielding the selectoral guillotine, dropping three internationals in out-half Julien Berthe, hooker Marc de Rougement and lock Olivier Brouzet, leaving captain Guy Accoceberry as their only international.

As all three are seriously good players, but clearly out of form, that would seem to be good news for Leinster, except that the changes resulted in a 56-5 defeat of Nice at the weekend.

Certainly the experiment of moving Pascal Fauthoux from full-back to out-half seemed to reap rich dividends, Fauthoux scoring three tries and accumulating 31 points in that rout of Nice.

So they may be a side who have turned a bit of a corner. For Begles, their need is as acute, given this is very much their last chance saloon.

It's a hard game to call, so hard even Paddy Powers decided to "duck it", and they definitely said duck. It's probably a good call.