Leinster pack can shunt Connacht aside again

This being the meat of the season, then the next week will go some way toward deciding which provinces will still have more to…

This being the meat of the season, then the next week will go some way toward deciding which provinces will still have more to tuck into and which will be left with merely the grisly bits.

Certainly today's penultimate round of the Guinness Inter provincial Championship has turned into the pivotal games for pretty much all the protagonists and, come 4 o'clock, the title could be down to one or four teams.

The latter seems a likelier scenario, given the season that's in it and the competitive nature of the interpros, although it would require a Connacht win over Leinster and, most probably, a Munster win over Ulster - depending on how the bonus points stack up.

Alternatively, a maximum five point haul for Leinster coupled with a draw in Cork would see Mike Ruddock's team retain the title. In any event, the holders are the only team with their destiny in their own hands.

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Victory in Galway today would at the very least ensure them of a coveted top two place, and with it qualification for whatever is on offer next season - be it a first division of a British League, or the European Cup, or both, or neither. (This being rugby today).

It would also maintain daylight between Leinster and the rest, leaving them in pole position prior to the visit of Munster three weeks hence, while at the same time almost certainly condemning Connacht to a bottom two finish. For the westerners then, this first of three games in eight days is the point of no return.

Oddly enough, Leinster are entitled to be favourites at a venue where they haven't won in 12 years. They have lost on their last four visits to the Sportsground, in i988, '92, '94 and '96, their last success in Galway coming at Corinthian Park eight years ago.

Despite last week's Euro jolt against Stade Francais, Leinster come into this game on the back of four straight wins domestically and they quickly refocused on the bread and butter last Saturday morning.

Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see whether the Stade defeat has knocked them off their stride. Given Alan Kelly's record as physio, one presumes Martin Ridge and Trevor Brennan will be able to take their place at the start, though even so a change is likely.

The whisper is that Dennis Hickie will be dropped to make way for young Gordon D'Arcy. The Irish winger, not surprisingly, has looked psychologically scarred and wary of physical confrontation since he sustained a broken jaw in South Africa, and had a poor game defensively a week ago when not closing down space quickly enough.

The last remaining member of the St Mary's outside three, Kevin Nowlan, also looks to be jolted by his omission from the Irish squad but this return to domestic chores (where he is the championship's leading try scorer) should be more to his liking.

Besides, the critical factors in this contest, like most, ought to be up front. In their previous meeting, the Leinster pack steamrollered the Connacht eight for practically all of the first hour and Leinster might easily have been more than 19-0 ahead at that point.

Even then, the decisive moment was the Leinster scrum's continuing ascendancy, shunting Connacht off their own ball for Victor Costello to score the insurance try which staved off Connacht's last quarter, four-try comeback.

If Leinster can re-apply that scrum superiority, then it's difficult to see them losing. It will provide a launching pad for Costello to rumble, and for the remainder of their close-in running game, placing the Connacht back-row and Conor McGuinness on the back foot while enabling Derek Hegarty to snipe. Scrums could lead to more scrums and a forward orientated encounter, with Leinster also having more line-out options at the tail.

Connacht will thus need a stable scrum and a productive line-out for them to attack through their potent midfield combination, Mervyn Murphy and Pat Duignan, and further afield, if they are to capitalise on the absence of a true open-side for Leinster.

They, too, look to be hitting on a more settled team. The week off, followed by the convincing win in Newport, would seem to have them nicely primed. Simon Allnutt has slotted into Eric Elwood's shoes smoothly, even if that leaves Connacht with a slight void in leadership. But by all accounts, last Saturday's win marked a return to basics and once again they did much of their scoring late on.

Leinster look to have a discernible edge up front, but it could be a close-run thing.

Connacht: W Ruane; R Southam, P Duignan, M Murphy (capt), A Reddan; S Allnutt, C McGuinness; J Screene, B Mulcahy, M Cahill, G Heaslip, J Duffy, J Charlie, B Gavin, S McEntee. Replacements - D Reddan, O Cobbe, N Carolan, J McVeigh, M Finlay, I Dillon, J Casserley.

Leinster (possible): K Nowlan; G D'Arcy, S Horgan, M Ridge, G Dempsey; A McGowan, D Hegarty; E Byrne, S Byrne, A McKeen, P Holden, G Fulcher (capt), T Brennan, V Costello, C Brownlie.

Referee: D McHugh (Munster).

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley is Rugby Correspondent of The Irish Times