AS PROVERBIAL banana skins go, especially for Leinster, this has a particularly slippery look to it given an array of Scottish venues have seen the European champions tumble. They have lost there on four of seven treks in this competition and have never won at Firhill, losing on all of their four visits to the home of, as Billy Connolly puts it, Patrick Thistle Nil.
Leinster were probably perceived as favourites going into most, if not all, of those encounters and, indeed, since completing a Heineken Cup and league four-timer over the Warriors six seasons ago, Leinster have lost on all five of their subsequent visits to Glasgow.
Throw in the library shift, ie one of those cursed, Sky-dictated, Sunday brunch-time kick-offs, and this is a far cry from 40,000 or so at the Aviva Stadium. Put another way, by the standards of Heineken Cup occasions, this doesn’t raise the hairs on the back of the neck.
That being said, following on from their record attendance of 8,852 for their derby win over Edinburgh Rugby on New Year’s Day, more than 5,400 tickets have been issued for the Pool 3 clash. The Warriors are thus in line to break their European record attendance of 5,764 for the game against Montferrand at Hughenden in September 2001.
Indeed, the more you think about it, it’s no wonder Sean Lineen – whom Joe Schmidt freely admits he’s never beaten – placed this game amongst the “biggest and most exciting” challenges in club’s history. The European champions are in town. Glasgow have lost just two of their last 13, winning six on the spin at home and six of their last seven home ties in the cup, are smarting from an embarrassing defeat in round two at the RDS and their prospects of reaching the knock-out stages for the first time hinge on winning this game.
Accordingly, Lineen rested a host of front-liners from last week’s 16-14 loss away to the Scarlets and makes 10 changes from that game. A couple, admittedly, are forced, with the Scottish Test pair of prop Moray Low (knee) and outhalf Ruaridh Jackson (upper leg) ruled out. But John Barclay, captain Al Kellock and Richie Gray are restored to a huge back five, along with flanker Rob Harley, who was cleared to play after a league disciplinary hearing yesterday. Key man Chris Cusiter is back at scrumhalf inside the prolific Duncan Weir, giving them a solid kicking game at out-half, as is fullback Rory Lamont.
Schmidt has recalled Leo Cullen, Shane Jennings and Isa Nacewa to the team which kicked off the win in Cardiff last week, in picking what could reasonably be termed his attacking “home” team, ie with Devin Toner to win ball and counter the presence of the other lighthouse Gray, while preferring the mobility of Cian Healy and Jennings up front, as well as Eoin Reddan’s nippier service ahead of Damien Browne, Heinke van der Merwe, Kevin McLaughlin and Isaac Boss.
Disappointingly, the on-fire Luke Fitzgerald misses out again, this time due to a cricked neck, while Richardt Strauss is given another week to regain full fitness, which means David Kearney makes his European debut (albeit after 28 league games) in a back three along with big bro Rob and Nacewa.
This adventurous selection would tend to suggest Leinster don’t see the need to counter a physical Glasgow outfit, and are of a mind to have a go in earning the win that would ensure qualification and leave them one more win, at home to Montpellier, from guaranteeing a home quarter-final. That said, Firhill has a tight pitch, which will clip their wide game and place a further premium on accuracy.
Nigel Owens, who close finishes seem to follow around, is in charge, and it was interesting to hear Jonathan Sexton highlight the need for discipline on Sky’s Rugby Club. Scrum coach Greg Feek yesterday also conceded it had been highlighted this week. If Leinster begin strongly, retain the ball, are accurate at set-piece and are disciplined, even anticipating a ferocious Glasgow effort at the breakdown, Leinster ought ultimately have sufficient firepower to adroitly step over it.
GLASGOW WARRIORS: R Lamont; T Seymour, S Hogg, G Morrison, C Shaw; D Weir, C Cusiter; J Welsh, P MacArthur, E Kalman, R Gray, A Kellock (capt), R Harley, C Fusaro, J Barclay. Replacements: D Hall, G Reid, R Grant, T Ryder, J Beattie, C Gregor, T Nathan, S Wight.
LEINSTER: R Kearney; D Kearney, F McFadden, G DArcy, I Nacewa; J Sexton, E Reddan; C Healy, S Cronin, M Ross, L Cullen (capt), D Toner, S OBrien, S Jennings, J Heaslip. Replacements: A Dundon, H Van der Merwe, N White, D Browne, R Ruddock, I Boss, I Madigan, E OMalley.
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales).
Betting (Paddy Powers): 3/1 Glasgow, 22/1 Draw, ¼ Leinster. Handicap odds (Glasgow +8pts) 10/11 Glasgow, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Leinster.
Forecast: Leinster to win.
